DOI: 10.1002/2015JD024342
论文题名: Statistical downscaling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency and the amplified role of the Caribbean low-level jet in a warmer climate
作者: Jones J.J. ; Stephenson T.S. ; Taylor M.A. ; Campbell J.D.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2016
卷: 121, 期: 8 起始页码: 3741
结束页码: 3758
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Caribbean low-level jet
; statistical downscaling
; tropical cyclones
Scopus关键词: climate modeling
; downscaling
; global climate
; global warming
; hurricane
; rainfall
; sea surface temperature
; surface wind
; zonal wind
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Caribbean Sea
英文摘要: This study assesses the skill of four statistical models in hindcasting North Atlantic annual tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over 1950-2008 with the aim of projecting future activity. Three of the models are motivated by operational statistical forecast schemes and are premised on standard hurricane predictors including sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and near-surface zonal winds. The fourth model uses an SST gradient index previously proposed for Caribbean seasonal rainfall prediction. The statistical models, created from backward regression, explain 24-48% of the observed variability in 1950-2008 annual TC frequency. The future state of the predictors is extracted from the ECHAM5, HadCM3, MRI CGCM2.3.2a, and MIROC3.2 global climate model (GCM) simulations under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3. Models utilizing SST and near-surface wind predictors suggest significant increases in mean annual frequency by 2-8 TCs by 2070-2090, compared to a single surface wind predictor model, indicating that positive trends in SSTs under global warming have a larger relative influence on projections than changes in the variability of the surface winds. Wind-only models exhibit declines in TC frequency, while the SST gradient model yields little change relative to the present-day mean. Backward regression reapplied against the 1990-2008 period, analogous to future warmer oceanic and atmospheric state relative to the earlier years in the record, retains only the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ)-type predictors, explaining up to 82% of TC frequency variability and suggesting a more dominant role for the CLLJ in a warmer climate. Projections using the new models show either a more conservative increase or a stronger decrease in frequency, consistent with a stronger CLLJ. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62922
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Physics, University of the West Indies, Mona, Jamaica
Recommended Citation:
Jones J.J.,Stephenson T.S.,Taylor M.A.,et al. Statistical downscaling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency and the amplified role of the Caribbean low-level jet in a warmer climate[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2016-01-01,121(8)