DOI: 10.1002/2014JD022134
论文题名: Assessment of downscaled current and future projections of diurnal rainfall patterns for the Himalaya
作者: Bhatt B.C. ; Sobolowski S. ; King M.P.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2014
卷: 119, 期: 22 起始页码: 12533
结束页码: 12545
语种: 英语
英文关键词: diurnal variation
; Himalayas
; regional climate modeling
Scopus关键词: climate modeling
; concentration (composition)
; diurnal variation
; optimization
; precipitation intensity
; regional climate
; simulation
; Himalayas
英文摘要: In this study we investigate the diurnal precipitation cycle in high-resolution regional climate simulations for present (2000-2010) and future time periods (2030-2040 and 2040-2050) over subregions of the Himalayas. The future periods are simulated under a high-emission scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) in order to maximize any projected externally driven precipitation signal. For present climate, 4-hourly simulated precipitation is first evaluated against observations to establish model credibility. The diurnal cycle, which is typically characterized by a bimodal structure with primary (secondary) maxima in nighttime (afternoon), is reasonably well represented in the present, giving us confidence when assessing potential future changes. The timing of the precipitation maxima and minima is found to match the observed timings well in the diurnal cycle. In general, the Weather Research and Forecasting model captures the principal shape of the diurnal cycle observed over all the subregions. Under projected future conditions, no significant changes in the diurnal cycle occur. The results suggest modest changes in diurnal precipitation under RCP8.5 emission scenario, as evidenced by an increase in afternoon precipitation around the Himalayas. Although the projected future changes of precipitation presented in this article are within of the expected range of precipitation changes caution must be exercised when interpreting single-model experiments. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63032
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Uni Research Climate, Bergen, Norway; Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Bhatt B.C.,Sobolowski S.,King M.P.. Assessment of downscaled current and future projections of diurnal rainfall patterns for the Himalaya[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2014-01-01,119(22)