DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020519
论文题名: Alternative ways to evaluate a seasonal dynamical downscaling system
作者: Shin D.W. ; Cocke S.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 24 起始页码: 13443
结束页码: 13448
语种: 英语
英文关键词: crop application
; downscaling
; model evaluation
; regional model
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Crops
; Down-scaling
; Intraseasonal variability
; Meteorological variables
; Model evaluation
; Precipitation variability
; Regional climate modeling
; Regional model
; Southeast United States
; Rain
; climate modeling
; correlation
; data set
; downscaling
; global climate
; meteorology
; numerical model
; observational method
; prediction
; rainfall
; rainfed agriculture
; regional climate
; seasonal variation
; statistical analysis
; United States
英文摘要: The value added by dynamically downscaling using a regional climate model, compared to using only a global climate model, is explicitly unveiled by using nontraditional skill evaluation statistics. The conventional model evaluation methods, such as temporal correlation of seasonal average rainfall, cannot always demonstrate the value of dynamically downscaled data. One of our primary alternative metrics for evaluating downscaling methodologies is comparing crop yields simulated using the downscaled data, assuming nonirrigated conditions, to yields simulated using observations. Rainfed crops in the southeast United States are very sensitive to water stress. In fact, these crops are often more sensitive to periods of wet/dry spells than to seasonal rainfall totals. Thus, using crop models as a performance metric provides an alternative to simply evaluating the prediction/simulation of the seasonal mean of some particular meteorological variables and has more practical relevance. Furthermore, while the discovery of climate signals contributing to total summertime precipitation variability remains elusive, our results suggest that dynamical regional models may better simulate intraseasonal variability than simply the anomalies of the seasonal mean, which further justify their usefulness in application models. Key Points There is a problem in the conventional model evaluation methods A crop model can be used to reveal the value of regional model better A dynamical downscaling could be really useful for application models ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63085
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee FL 32306-2840, United States
Recommended Citation:
Shin D.W.,Cocke S.. Alternative ways to evaluate a seasonal dynamical downscaling system[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(24)