DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020380
论文题名: Long-term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium
作者: Kozar M.E. ; Mann M.E. ; Emanuel K.A. ; Evans J.L.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 24 起始页码: 13383
结束页码: 13392
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate
; North Atlantic
; tropical cyclones
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Climatology
; Computer simulation
; Digital storage
; Oceanography
; Reconnaissance aircraft
; Satellite imagery
; Anthropogenic forcing
; Atmospheric variables
; climate
; Climate model simulations
; National center for atmospheric researches
; North Atlantic
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropical cyclone activity
; Hurricanes
; air-sea interaction
; anthropogenic effect
; atmospheric modeling
; climate modeling
; data set
; long-term change
; numerical model
; satellite imagery
; timescale
; tropical cyclone
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: The observed historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) is relatively short and is subject to potential biases owing to a lack of observation platforms such as aircraft reconnaissance and satellite imagery in earlier decades. Therefore, studies of long-term variability in TC activity are hindered by the limitations and uncertainty within the historical data. An alternative approach is to study long-term Atlantic TC variability within the framework of a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model simulation. We have taken such an approach using a simulation of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate System Model 1.4 forced with estimated natural and anthropogenic forcing over the past millennium. Atmospheric variables from the long-term model simulation are used to drive a recently developed downscaling relationship that simulates TC genesis and tracking over the course of the 1150 year model simulation. This downscaling process generates a long-term synthetic TC track data set, free of observational biases, though subject to limitations in the model climatology. The synthetic TC data are used to perform an analysis of long-term variability in Atlantic TCs, specifically focusing on TC landfalls, within the context of the coupled model simulation. Ultimately, analysis of various TC time series reveals that counts of landfalling TCs and even landfalling hurricanes track relatively well with the total basin-wide TC activity on multidecadal and longer timescales. Key Points Long-term Atlantic TC activity is analyzed within a downscaled model simulation Simulated TC counts track hurricane landfall counts well on multidecadal scales ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 资助项目: ATM-1322532
; NA11OAR4310101
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63090
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee FL, United States; Department of Meteorology, Earth Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park PA, United States; Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kozar M.E.,Mann M.E.,Emanuel K.A.,et al. Long-term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(24)