DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020776
论文题名: Long-term memory in climate variability: A new look based on fractional integral techniques
作者: Yuan N. ; Fu Z. ; Liu S.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 23 起始页码: 12962
结束页码: 12969
语种: 英语
英文关键词: fractional integral
; long-term memory
; memory kernel
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Time series
; Climate predictability
; Climate variability
; Climatic variability
; Fractional integrals
; Long term memory
; Memory kernels
; Novel interpretation
; Statistical modeling
; Climate models
; atmospheric modeling
; climate change
; numerical model
; time series
英文摘要: Long-term memory (LTM) in climate variability is studied by means of fractional integral techniques. We establish a new model, Fractional Integral Statistical Model (FISM), with which one can reproduce LTM of any given time series of climatic variability successfully. By using FISM, we further propose a new variable, Memory Kernel, based on which a clear picture of how the historical states maintain their impacts on the states in far future is drawn quantitatively. We find any climatic variability time series with LTM can be decomposed into two components: the weather-scale (or more accurately, smaller-scale) excitation and the cumulative memory component. By analyzing these two components, we reach an interpretation of climate memory in the end of the paper, that is, smaller time scale excitation pushes the present climate regime to begin to change, while slower response subsystems, such as the ocean, usually "remember" the forcing first, and then exhibit the influence slowly on a larger time scale. Since LTM is ubiquitous in climate, our findings in this paper may suggest a new perspective on the research of climate predictability. Key Points A new model, Fractional Integral Statistical Model is established A picture of how the past states keep their impacts till far future is drawn A novel interpretation of the climate long-term memory is reached ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 资助项目: 41175141
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63098
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institute of Climate System, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing, China; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Recommended Citation:
Yuan N.,Fu Z.,Liu S.. Long-term memory in climate variability: A new look based on fractional integral techniques[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(23)