DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020290
论文题名: The western Pacific monsoon in CMIP5 models: Model evaluation and projections
作者: Brown J.R. ; Colman R.A. ; Moise A.F. ; Smith I.N.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 22 起始页码: 12458
结束页码: 12475
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate models
; monsoons
; tropical climate
; Western Pacific
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Computer simulation
; Rain
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Equatorial Pacific
; Interannual variability
; monsoons
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Summer monsoon rainfall
; Tropical climates
; Western Pacific
; Climate models
; annual variation
; atmospheric modeling
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; marine atmosphere
; model test
; monsoon
; sea surface temperature
; tropical environment
; Caroline Islands
; Indian Ocean
; New Guinea
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
; Pacific Ocean (West)
; Palau
; Solomon Islands [(ISG) Melanesia]
; Solomon Islands [Solomon Islands (ISG)]
; Timor Sea
英文摘要: The ability of 35 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to simulate the western Pacific (WP) monsoon is evaluated over four representative regions around Timor, New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Palau. Coupled model simulations are compared with atmosphere-only model simulations (with observed sea surface temperatures, SSTs) to determine the impact of SST biases on model performance. Overall, the CMIP5 models simulate the WP monsoon better than previous-generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models, but some systematic biases remain. The atmosphere-only models are better able to simulate the seasonal cycle of zonal winds than the coupled models, but display comparable biases in the rainfall. The CMIP5 models are able to capture features of interannual variability in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In climate projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, monsoon rainfall is increased over most of the WP monsoon domain, while wind changes are small. Widespread rainfall increases at low latitudes in the summer hemisphere appear robust as a large majority of models agree on the sign of the change. There is less agreement on rainfall changes in winter. Interannual variability of monsoon wet season rainfall is increased in a warmer climate, particularly over Palau, Timor and the Solomon Islands. A subset of the models showing greatest skill in the current climate confirms the overall projections, although showing markedly smaller rainfall increases in the western equatorial Pacific. The changes found here may have large impacts on Pacific island countries influenced by the WP monsoon. Key Points CMIP5 models simulate the western Pacific monsoon better than CMIP3 models Models project a future increase in western Pacific summer monsoon rainfall Interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall is projected to increase ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63154
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins Street, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Brown J.R.,Colman R.A.,Moise A.F.,et al. The western Pacific monsoon in CMIP5 models: Model evaluation and projections[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(22)