DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020184
论文题名: An observationally based constraint on the water-vapor feedback
作者: Gordon N.D. ; Jonko A.K. ; Forster P.M. ; Shell K.M.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 22 起始页码: 12435
结束页码: 12443
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate feedback
; water vapor
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Global warming
; Sounding apparatus
; Water vapor
; Anthropogenic forcing
; Atmospheric concentration
; Atmospheric infrared sounders
; Climate feedbacks
; Climate response
; Interannual variability
; Twentieth century
; Water vapor feedbacks
; Feedback
; annual variation
; anthropogenic effect
; climate effect
; climate feedback
; climate modeling
; concentration (composition)
; error analysis
; global warming
; temporal analysis
; twentieth century
; water vapor
英文摘要: The increase in atmospheric concentrations of water vapor with global warming is a large positive feedback in the climate system. Thus, even relatively small errors in its magnitude can lead to large uncertainties in predicting climate response to anthropogenic forcing. This study incorporates observed variability of water vapor over 2002-2009 from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument into a radiative transfer scheme to provide constraints on this feedback. We derive a short-term water vapor feedback of 2.2 ± 0.4 Wm-2K-1. Based on the relationship between feedback derived over short and long timescales in twentieth century simulations of 14 climate models, we estimate a range of likely values for the long-term twentieth century water vapor feedback of 1.9 to 2.8 Wm-2K-1. We use the twentieth century simulations to determine the record length necessary for the short-term feedback to approach the long-term value. In most of the climate models we analyze, the short-term feedback converges to within 15% of its long-term value after 25 years, implying that a longer observational record is necessary to accurately estimate the water vapor feedback. Key Points The water vapor feedback from observations is greater than most models predict The water vapor feedback from interannual variability is an underestimate 20 years of observations are needed to constrain the water vapor feedback © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres published by Wiley on behalf of the American Geophysical Union. 资助项目: ATM 0904092
; NE/E016189/1
; NNH08CC72C
; NNX09AN92H
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63158
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Ave., Livermore, CA 94550, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States
Recommended Citation:
Gordon N.D.,Jonko A.K.,Forster P.M.,et al. An observationally based constraint on the water-vapor feedback[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(22)