DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020258
论文题名: Detection of carbon monoxide trends in the presence of interannual variability
作者: Strode S.A. ; Pawson S.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 21 起始页码: 12257
结束页码: 12273
语种: 英语
英文关键词: anthropogenic emissions
; carbon monoxide
; trends
; variability
Scopus关键词: Biomass
; Carbon monoxide
; Chemical detection
; Climate change
; Particulate emissions
; Anthropogenic emissions
; Detection of carbon monoxide
; Interannual variability
; Long-term measurements
; Measurements of pollution in the tropospheres
; Satellite observations
; trends
; variability
; Pollution detection
; annual variation
; anthropogenic source
; atmospheric pollution
; biomass burning
; carbon monoxide
; timescale
; Asia
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
; United States
英文摘要: Trends in fossil fuel emissions are a major driver of changes in atmospheric CO, but detection of trends in CO from anthropogenic sources is complicated by the presence of large interannual variability (IAV) in biomass burning. We use a multiyear model simulation of CO with year-specific biomass burning to predict the number of years needed to detect the impact of changes in Asian anthropogenic emissions on downwind regions. Our study includes two cases for changing anthropogenic emissions: a stepwise change of 15% and a linear trend of 3% yr-1. We first examine how well the model reproduces the observed IAV of CO over the North Pacific, since this variability impacts the time needed to detect significant anthropogenic trends. The modeled IAV over the North Pacific correlates well with that seen from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument but underestimates the magnitude of the variability. The model predicts that a 3% yr-1 trend in Asian anthropogenic emissions would lead to a statistically significant trend in CO surface concentration in the western United States within 12 years, and accounting for Siberian boreal biomass-burning emissions greatly reduces the number of years needed for trend detection. Combining the modeled trend with the observed MOPITT variability at 500 hPa, we estimate that the 3% yr-1 trend could be detectable in satellite observations over Asia in approximately a decade. Our predicted timescales for trend detection highlight the importance of long-term measurements of CO from satellites. Key Points Timescales for pollution trend detection vary by season and altitude Simulations identify regions for rapid detection of anthropogenic CO trends Accounting for biomass burning speeds detection of anthropogenic emission trends ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63170
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Universities Space Research Association, Code 614, 8800 Greenbelt Rd., Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Strode S.A.,Pawson S.. Detection of carbon monoxide trends in the presence of interannual variability[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(21)