DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50846
论文题名: Predictability of soil moisture and streamflow on subseasonal timescales: A case study
作者: Orth R. ; Seneviratne S.I.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 19 起始页码: 10963
结束页码: 10979
语种: 英语
英文关键词: forecast
; hydrological predictability
; memory
; runoff
; skill
; soil moisture
Scopus关键词: Data storage equipment
; Forecasting
; Information use
; Runoff
; Snow
; Stream flow
; Water management
; Weather forecasting
; Hydrological forecast
; hydrological predictability
; Initial soil moisture
; Precipitation forecast
; Realistic initial conditions
; skill
; Temperature forecasts
; Waterresource management
; Soil moisture
; atmospheric forcing
; climate prediction
; climatology
; conceptual framework
; extreme event
; mountain region
; numerical model
; runoff
; soil moisture
; streamflow
; timescale
; water budget
; weather forecasting
; Switzerland
英文摘要: Hydrological forecasts constitute an important tool in water resource management, especially in the case of impending extreme events. This study investigates the potential predictability of soil moisture and streamflow in Switzerland using a conceptual model including a simple water balance representation and a snow module. Our results show that simulated soil moisture and streamflow are more predictable (as indicated by significantly improved performance compared to climatology) until lead times of approximately 1 week and 2-3 days, respectively, when using initial soil moisture information and climatological atmospheric forcing. Using also initial snow information and seasonal weather forecasts as forcing, the predictable lead time doubles in case of soil moisture and triples for streamflow. The skill contributions of the additional information vary with altitude; at low altitudes the precipitation forecast is most important, whereas in mountainous areas the temperature forecast and the initial snow information are the most valuable contributors. We find furthermore that the soil moisture and streamflow forecast skills increase with increasing initial soil moisture anomalies. Comparing the respective value of realistic initial conditions and state-of-the-art forcing forecasts, we show that the former are generally more important for soil moisture forecasts, whereas the latter are more valuable for streamflow forecasts. To relate the derived predictabilities to respective soil moisture and streamflow memories investigated in other publications, we additionally illustrate the similarity between the concepts of memory and predictability as measures of persistence in the last part of this study. Key Points Soil moisture and streamflow well predictable 2 and 1 weeks ahead, respectively Initial soil moisture and precip. fcsts. important for hydrol. predictability Concepts of memory and predictability as measures of persistence are similar ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63272
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Orth R.,Seneviratne S.I.. Predictability of soil moisture and streamflow on subseasonal timescales: A case study[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(19)