DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50814
论文题名: Association between trends in daily rainfall percentiles and the global mean temperature
作者: Benestad R.E.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 19 起始页码: 10802
结束页码: 10810
语种: 英语
英文关键词: attribution
; global warming
; percentiles
; precipitation
; trend
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Regression analysis
; attribution
; Empirical relationships
; Global climate model simulations
; Global-mean temperature
; Multiple regression analysis
; percentiles
; Statistical trend analysis
; trend
; Global warming
; climate modeling
; global warming
; hydrological cycle
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainfall
; temperature effect
; temporal variation
英文摘要: Attributing changes in extreme daily precipitation to global warming is difficult, even when based on global climate model simulations or statistical trend analyses. The question about trends in extreme precipitation and their causes has been elusive because of climate models' limited precision and the fact that extremes are both rare and occur at irregular intervals. Here a newly discovered empirical relationship between the wet-day mean and percentiles in 24 h precipitation amounts was used to show that trends in the wet-day 95th percentiles worldwide have been influenced by the global mean temperature, consistent with an accelerated hydrological cycle caused by a global warming. A multiple regression analysis was used as a basis for an attribution analysis by matching temporal variability in precipitation statistics with the global mean temperature. Key Points Intense 24-hr precipitation changes due to global warming New method for downscaling 24-hr precipitation statistics Independent confirmation of earlier studies ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63278
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Norwegian Meteorological Institute, PO Box 43, Blindern, 0313 Oslo, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Benestad R.E.. Association between trends in daily rainfall percentiles and the global mean temperature[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(19)