DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50824
论文题名: Two case studies on NARCCAP precipitation extremes
作者: Weller G.B. ; Cooley D. ; Sain S.R. ; Bukovsky M.S. ; Mearns L.O.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 18 起始页码: 10475
结束页码: 10489
语种: 英语
英文关键词: bivariate extremes
; extreme precipitation
; NARCCAP
; regional climate models
; tail dependence
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Bivariate
; Extreme precipitation
; NARCCAP
; Regional climate models
; Tail dependence
; Computer simulation
; climate change
; climate modeling
; coastal zone
; extreme event
; multivariate analysis
; precipitation (climatology)
; seasonal variation
; simulation
; Pacific Coast [North America]
; Pacific Coast [United States]
; United States
英文摘要: We introduce novel methodology to examine the ability of six regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble to simulate past extreme precipitation events seen in the observational record over two different regions and seasons. Our primary objective is to examine the strength of daily correspondence of extreme precipitation events between observations and the output of both the RCMs and the driving reanalysis product. To explore this correspondence, we employ methods from multivariate extreme value theory. These methods require that we account for marginal behavior, and we first model and compare climatological quantities which describe tail behavior of daily precipitation for both the observations and model output before turning attention to quantifying the correspondence of the extreme events. Daily precipitation in a West Coast region of North America is analyzed in two seasons, and it is found that the simulated extreme events from the reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models exhibit strong daily correspondence to extreme events in the observational record. Precipitation over a central region of the United States is examined, and we find some daily correspondence between winter extremes simulated by reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models and those seen in observations, but no such correspondence is found for summer extremes. Furthermore, we find greater discrepancies among the NARCCAP models in the tail characteristics of the distribution of daily summer precipitation over this region than seen in precipitation over the West Coast region. We find that the models which employ spectral nudging exhibit stronger tail dependence to observations in the central region. Key Points Novel methodology employed to study NARCCAP extreme precipitationExtremes in two regions are examinedDiffering results seen for region/season combinations studied ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 资助项目: ATM-0502977
; ATM-0534173
; DMS-0905315
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63296
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Baker Hall 132, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, United States; Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Weller G.B.,Cooley D.,Sain S.R.,et al. Two case studies on NARCCAP precipitation extremes[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(18)