DOI: 10.1002/grl.50362
论文题名: Potential of equatorial Atlantic variability to enhance El Niño prediction
作者: Keenlyside N.S. ; Ding H. ; Latif M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9067
EISSN: 1944-8798
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 10 起始页码: 2278
结束页码: 2283
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSO
; seasonal prediction
; spring predicability barrier
; teleconnections
; Tropical Atlantic
; Zonal Mode
Scopus关键词: ENSO
; Seasonal prediction
; Teleconnections
; Tropical atlantic
; Zonal modes
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; climate modeling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; numerical model
; prediction
; sea surface temperature
; teleconnection
; zonal flow
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (Equatorial)
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: Extraordinarily strong El Niño events, such as those of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998, have been poorly predicted by operational seasonal forecasts made before boreal spring, despite significant advances in understanding, improved models, and enhanced observational networks. The Equatorial Atlantic Zonal Mode - a phenomenon similar to El Niño but much weaker and peaking in boreal summer - impacts winds over the Pacific, and hence affects El Niño, and also potentially its predictability. Here we use a climate model to perform a suite of seasonal predictions with and without sea surface temperature (SST) in the Atlantic restored to observations. We show for the first time that knowledge of equatorial Atlantic SST significantly improves the prediction across boreal spring of major El Niño events and also weaker variability. This is because Atlantic SST acts to modulate El Niño variability, rather than triggering events. Our results suggest that better prediction of major El Niño events might be achieved through model improvement in the equatorial Atlantic. © 2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84879951802&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50362&partnerID=40&md5=a9ddc1e2efa978b1cb1aaa1b207ba5ac
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6331
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre, University of Bergen, Allegaten 70, 5007, Bergen, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Keenlyside N.S.,Ding H.,Latif M.. Potential of equatorial Atlantic variability to enhance El Niño prediction[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(10).