DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50753
论文题名: Volcanic sulfur dioxide plume forecasts based on UV satellite retrievals for the 2011 Grímsvötn and the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption
作者: Flemming J. ; Inness A.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 17 起始页码: 10172
结束页码: 10189
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Eyjafjallajökull
; Grímsvötn
; plume forecasts
Scopus关键词: Electron emission
; Estimation
; Spectrometers
; Sulfur
; Ultraviolet spectrometers
; Volcanoes
; Weather forecasting
; Data assimilation
; European centre for medium-range weather forecasts
; Four-dimensional variational data assimilation
; Global ozone monitoring experiments
; Integrated forecasting systems
; Satellite retrieval
; Scanning imaging absorption spectrometer for atmospheric chartography
; Volcanic SO
; Sulfur dioxide
; algorithm
; atmospheric modeling
; atmospheric plume
; atmospheric pollution
; data assimilation
; forecasting method
; GOME
; satellite imagery
; sulfur dioxide
; threshold
; ultraviolet radiation
; volcanic aerosol
; volcanic eruption
; Eyjafjallajokull
; Iceland
英文摘要: The sulfur dioxide plumes released by the eruptions of the Icelandic volcanoes Eyjafjallajökull in May 2010 and Grímsvötn in May 2011 were studied using satellite observations from the Second Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME-2), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography and modeled with the Integrated Forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The retrievals of SO2 total columns (TCSO2) were (i) used to estimate emission rate and injection height of the two eruptions and (ii) assimilated with ECMWF's four-dimensional variational data assimilation algorithm to obtain initial conditions for subsequent forecasts. The OMI retrievals provided the highest plume observation values, and GOME-2 had the best coverage. The emission parameters were estimated by comparing TCSO2 observations with an ensemble of test tracers injected at different heights. The applied methodology led to emission estimates of 0.25 Tg over 20 days in May 2010 and 0.32 Tg over 2 days in May 2011. The SO2 analyses produced by assimilating GOME-2 TCSO2 retrievals captured the plume maxima well but exaggerated the plume area. The injection height estimate was used during the assimilation to determine the height of the assimilated plume. Plume forecasts were evaluated by means of hit-rate and plume-size statistics for different TCSO2 thresholds. Plume forecasts using either the emission parameters or the SO2 analyses as initial conditions agreed reasonably with the observations, but using both led to the best forecast performance. The initialization with SO2 analysis fields improved, in particular, the forecast of the Grímsvötn plume after the end of the eruption. The developed forecast and assimilation system can be applied for near-real-time forecasting of volcanic SO2 plumes. Key Points: GOME-2, OMI, and SCIAMACHY SO2 retrievals were comparedEmission rate and injection height were estimated from retrievalsPlume forecasts were initialized with SO2 analyses ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 资助项目: 283576
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63349
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Flemming J.,Inness A.. Volcanic sulfur dioxide plume forecasts based on UV satellite retrievals for the 2011 Grímsvötn and the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(17)