DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.502972013
论文题名: Projections of extreme precipitation events in regional climate simulations for Europe and the Alpine Region
作者: Rajczak J. ; Pall P. ; Schär C.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 9 起始页码: 3610
结束页码: 3626
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Greenhouse gases
; Extreme precipitation events
; Generalized extreme value
; Horizontal grid spacing
; Mean precipitation
; Precipitation indices
; Regional climate models
; Regional climate simulation
; Wet-day frequency
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; alpine environment
; frequency analysis
; numerical model
; precipitation (climatology)
; precipitation intensity
; regional climate
; uncertainty analysis
; Europe
英文摘要: Regional climate models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES project are analyzed to assess projected changes in 21st century heavy and extreme precipitation events over Europe. A set of 10 RCMs with horizontal grid spacing of 25 km is considered, which are driven by six GCMs under an A1B greenhouse gas scenario. The diagnostics include basic precipitation indices (including mean, wet-day frequency, intensity, and percentile exceedance) and application of generalized extreme value theory for return periods up to 100 years. Changes in precipitation climate between present (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) conditions are presented on a European scale and in more detail for 11 European regions (mostly in supplemental figures). On the European scale, projections show increases (decreases) in mean amounts and wet-day frequency in northern (southern) Europe. This pattern is oscillating with the seasonal cycle. Changes in extremes exhibit a similar pattern, but increases in heavy events reach much further south. For instance, during spring and fall, much of the Mediterranean is projected to experience decreases in mean precipitation but increases in heavy events. Thus, projected changes in mean and extremes may show different signals. The inter-model spread is partly attributable to a GCM-dependent clustering of the climate change signal, but also affected by RCM uncertainties, in particular in summer. Despite these uncertainties, many of the projected changes are statistically significant and consistent across models. For instance, for the Alps, all models project an intensification of heavy events during fall, and these changes are statistically significant for a majority of the models considered. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 资助项目: CRSII2-136279
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63442
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätsstrasse 16, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Rajczak J.,Pall P.,Schär C.. Projections of extreme precipitation events in regional climate simulations for Europe and the Alpine Region[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(9)