DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50638
论文题名: Extended range simulations of the extreme snow storms over southern China in early 2008 with the BCC-AGCM2.1 model
作者: Huang A. ; Zhang Y. ; Wang Z. ; Wu T. ; Huang D. ; Zhou Y. ; Zhao Y. ; Huang Y. ; Kuang X. ; Zhang L. ; Fang Y. ; Guo Y.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 15 起始页码: 8253
结束页码: 8273
语种: 英语
英文关键词: BCC-AGCM2.1
; extended range simulation
; SST forcing
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Computer simulation
; Meteorological problems
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Storms
; Weather forecasting
; Atmospheric general circulation models
; Atmospheric variability
; BCC-AGCM2.1
; Extended range
; Meteorological observation
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; SST forcing
; Subseasonal variability
; Oceanography
; air-sea interaction
; atmospheric forcing
; atmospheric modeling
; numerical model
; prediction
; sea surface temperature
; spatial distribution
; storm
; weather forecasting
; Beijing [China]
; China
英文摘要: The 10-30 day extended range potential predictability of the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.1 (BCC-AGCM2.1) model with high horizontal resolution has been evaluated, and the associated influencing factors and possible physical mechanisms have been discussed through a case study of the long-lasting extreme snow storms over southern China in early 2008. Comparison with meteorological observations suggests that the BCC-AGCM2.1 model forced by the real daily sea surface temperature (SST) well reproduced the extraordinarily frequent and long-lasting heavy snow storm process over southern China in early 2008 including the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the 2 m air temperature and snow rainfall but produced relatively larger errors in precipitation. Overall, the BCC-AGCM2.1 model forced by the real daily SST shows good potential predictability on 10-30 day extended range time scale to some extent, at least from this extreme snow storm case study. Further analysis of the associated influencing factors and possible physical mechanisms indicates that the SST forcing is not as important as the initial conditions for the weather forecast within around 2 weeks in advance which is the upper limit of the daily weather forecast. However, the SST forcing with relatively larger day-to-day variability plays an important role in the potential predictability of the BCC-AGCM2.1 model on 10-30 day extended forecasting time scale through affecting the atmospheric variability. Results from this study provide us some necessary and valuable information for further development of an operational 10-30 day extended range forecasting system. Key Points BCC-AGCM2.1 model forced by real SST shows good extended range predictability The SCP subseasonal variability correlates with the SST day-to-day variability The SST day-to-day variability plays a key role in the extended range forecasts ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 资助项目: 41105069
; 41175086
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63445
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, No. 22 Hankou Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 210093, China; Beijing Climate Center, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorology Administration, Urumqi, China; Bao Shan Meteorological Bureau, Baoshan, China
Recommended Citation:
Huang A.,Zhang Y.,Wang Z.,et al. Extended range simulations of the extreme snow storms over southern China in early 2008 with the BCC-AGCM2.1 model[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(15)