globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.502662013
论文题名:
Impacts of climate change on surface ozone and intercontinental ozone pollution: A multi-model study
作者: Doherty R.M.; Wild O.; Shindell D.T.; Zeng G.; MacKenzie I.A.; Collins W.J.; Fiore A.M.; Stevenson D.S.; Dentener F.J.; Schultz M.G.; Hess P.; Derwent R.G.; Keating T.J.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期:9
起始页码: 3744
结束页码: 3763
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models ; Emission control ; Ozone ; Chemical process ; Climate change impact ; Emission reduction ; Sensitivity Simulation ; Spatial patterns ; Temperature changes ; Tracer concentration ; Water vapor concentration ; Climate change ; atmospheric modeling ; atmospheric pollution ; climate change ; emission ; nitrogen oxides ; numerical model ; ozone
英文摘要: The impact of climate change between 2000 and 2095 SRES A2 climates on surface ozone (O)3 and on O3 source-receptor (S-R) relationships is quantified using three coupled climate-chemistry models (CCMs). The CCMs exhibit considerable variability in the spatial extent and location of surface O3 increases that occur within parts of high NOx emission source regions (up to 6 ppbv in the annual average and up to 14 ppbv in the season of maximum O3). In these source regions, all three CCMs show a positive relationship between surface O3 change and temperature change. Sensitivity simulations show that a combination of three individual chemical processes-(i) enhanced PAN decomposition, (ii) higher water vapor concentrations, and (iii) enhanced isoprene emission-largely reproduces the global spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 response due to climate change (R2 = 0.52). Changes in climate are found to exert a stronger control on the annual-mean surface O3 response through changes in climate-sensitive O3 chemistry than through changes in transport as evaluated from idealized CO-like tracer concentrations. All three CCMs exhibit a similar spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 change to 20% regional O3 precursor emission reductions under future climate compared to the same emission reductions applied under present-day climate. The surface O3 response to emission reductions is larger over the source region and smaller downwind in the future than under present-day conditions. All three CCMs show areas within Europe where regional emission reductions larger than 20% are required to compensate climate change impacts on annual-mean surface O3. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63450
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, New York, United States; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; European Commission, Joint Research Centre JRC, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy; Institut für Energie-und Klimaforschung Troposphäre (IEK-8), Forschungszentrum-Jülich, Germany; Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; Rdscientific, Newbury, Berkshire, United Kingdom; Office of Policy Analysis and Review, Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, United States; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States

Recommended Citation:
Doherty R.M.,Wild O.,Shindell D.T.,et al. Impacts of climate change on surface ozone and intercontinental ozone pollution: A multi-model study[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(9)
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