| DOI: | 10.1002/grl.50454
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| 论文题名: | Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic jet |
| 作者: | Frame T.H.A.; Methven J.; Gray S.L.; Ambaum M.H.P.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9088
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| EISSN: | 1944-8819
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 40, 期:10 | | 起始页码: | 2411
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| 结束页码: | 2416
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | jets
; predictability
; regimes
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| Scopus关键词: | Ensemble forecasts
; Large-scale flows
; Lorenz attractor
; North Atlantic
; Northern Hemispheres
; predictability
; regimes
; Sensitive regions
; Earth sciences
; Geophysics
; Jets
; Forecasting
; eddy
; ensemble forecasting
; forecasting method
; jet
; Northern Hemisphere
; prediction
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
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| 英文摘要: | The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is a major component of the large-scale flow in the northern hemisphere. Here we present evidence from reanalysis and ensemble forecast data for systematic flow-dependent predictability of the jet during northern hemisphere winter (DJF). It is found that when the jet is weakened or split, it is both less persistent and less predictable. The lack of predictability manifests itself as the onset of an anomalously large instantaneous rate of spread of ensemble forecast members as the jet becomes weakened. This suggests that, as the jet weakens or splits, it enters into a state more sensitive to small differences between ensemble forecast members, rather like the sensitive region between the wings of the Lorenz attractor. © 2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84879955235&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50454&partnerID=40&md5=f617c8b2265f345452524e5dadd43aff
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6352
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | NCAS-Weather, United Kingdom
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Frame T.H.A.,Methven J.,Gray S.L.,et al. Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic jet[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(10).
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