DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50543
论文题名: Precipitation extremes over the continental United States in a transient, high-resolution, ensemble climate model experiment
作者: Singh D. ; Tsiang M. ; Rajaratnam B. ; Diffenbaugh N.S.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 13 起始页码: 7063
结束页码: 7086
语种: 英语
英文关键词: global warming
; high-resolution climate modeling
; NARCCAP
; precipitation extremes
; RegCM3
Scopus关键词: Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Water resources
; Extreme precipitation events
; High resolution
; High-resolution climate models
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; NARCCAP
; Precipitation extremes
; Precipitation intensity
; RegCM3
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; continental shelf
; experimental study
; extreme event
; greenhouse gas
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; precipitation (climatology)
; resolution
; spatial variation
; twenty first century
; United States
英文摘要: Understanding future changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events in response to increased greenhouse gas forcing is important for formulating adaptation and mitigation strategies that minimize damages to natural and human systems. We quantify transient changes in daily-scale seasonal extreme precipitation events over the U.S. using a five-member ensemble of nested, high-resolution climate model simulations covering the 21st century in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find a strong drying trend in annual and seasonal precipitation over the Southwest in autumn, winter, and spring and over the central U.S. in summer. These changes are accompanied by statistically significant increases in dry-day frequency and dry-spell lengths. Our results also show substantial increases in the frequency of extreme wet events over the northwestern U.S. in autumn, winter, and spring and the eastern U.S. in spring and summer. In addition, the average precipitation intensity increases relative to the extreme precipitation intensity in all seasons and most regions, with the exception of the Southeast. Further, most regions receive a greater fraction of total seasonal precipitation from extreme events. These results imply fewer but heavier precipitation events in the future, leading to more frequent wet and dry extremes in most regions of the U.S. Our simulations suggest that many of these changes are likely to become statistically significant by the mid-21st century. Given current vulnerabilities, such changes in extreme precipitation could be expected to increase stress on water resources in many areas of the U.S., including during the near-term decades. Key Points examine changes in daily-scale precipitation extremes in each season less frequent but heavier precipitation events likely across most regions analyze dynamical processes to interpret spatial variations of changes ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63558
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford University, Jerry Yang and Akiko Yamazaki Environment and Energy Building, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305-4216, United States; Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue Climate Change Research Center, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States
Recommended Citation:
Singh D.,Tsiang M.,Rajaratnam B.,et al. Precipitation extremes over the continental United States in a transient, high-resolution, ensemble climate model experiment[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(13)