DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50524
论文题名: Simulating smoke transport from wildland fires with a regional-scale air quality model: Sensitivity to uncertain wind fields
作者: Garcia-Menendez F. ; Hu Y. ; Odman M.T.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 12 起始页码: 6493
结束页码: 6504
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMAQ
; fire emissions
; PM2.5
; wind
; WRF
Scopus关键词: Air quality
; Fires
; Meteorology
; Particles (particulate matter)
; Uncertainty analysis
; Urban growth
; Wind
; Wind effects
; Chemical transport models
; CMAQ
; Community multi-scale air qualities
; Fire emissions
; PM2.5
; Weather research and forecasting models
; Wind speed and directions
; WRF
; Weather forecasting
; air quality
; atmospheric transport
; biogenic emission
; climate modeling
; concentration (composition)
; meteorology
; sensitivity analysis
; smoke
; uncertainty analysis
; urban site
; wildfire
; wind field
; wind velocity
英文摘要: Uncertainties associated with meteorological inputs which are propagated through atmospheric chemical transport models may constrain their ability to replicate the effects of wildland fires on air quality. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of predicted fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) levels to uncertain wind fields by simulating the air quality impacts of two fires on an urban area with the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ). Brute-force sensitivity analyses show that modeled concentrations at receptors downwind from the fires are highly sensitive to variations in wind speed and direction. Additionally, uncertainty in wind fields produced with the Weather Research and Forecasting model was assessed by evaluating meteorological predictions against surface and upper air observations. Significant differences between predicted and observed wind fields were identified. Simulated PM 2.5 concentrations at urban sites displayed large sensitivities to wind perturbations within the error range of meteorological inputs. The analyses demonstrate that normalized errors in CMAQ predictions attempting to model the regional impacts of fires on PM2.5 levels could be as high as 100% due to inaccuracies in wind data. Meteorological drivers may largely account for the considerable discrepancies between monitoring site observations and predicted concentrations. The results of this study demonstrate that limitations in fire-related air quality simulations cannot be overcome by solely improving emission rates. Key Points Effective fire-related CMAQ simulations highly dependent on meteorological data PM2.5 concentration predictions extremely sensitive to wind inputs Fire-related CMAQ simulations constrained by uncertainty in weather modeling © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63607
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 311 Ferst Drive, Atlanta, GA 30332, United States
Recommended Citation:
Garcia-Menendez F.,Hu Y.,Odman M.T.. Simulating smoke transport from wildland fires with a regional-scale air quality model: Sensitivity to uncertain wind fields[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(12)