DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50469
论文题名: Decadal prediction of interannual tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperature
作者: Lienert F. ; Doblas-Reyes F.J.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 12 起始页码: 5913
结束页码: 5922
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Decadal Climate Prediction
; North Pacific
; North Pacific Gyre Oscillation
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; Sea Surface Temperature
; Tropical Pacific
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Forecasting
; Oceanography
; Tropics
; Climate prediction
; North Pacific
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Tropical Pacific
; Climatology
; annual variation
; decadal variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; gyre
; numerical model
; sea surface temperature
; timescale
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: The performance of a coupled climate forecast system initialized with observations, relative to the accompanying uninitialized system, to re-forecast annual-mean tropical and North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departures at the decadal time scale is described. The study finds that the correlation skill of the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) mode of North Pacific SSTs, i.e., the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), is limited to about one year, while the second mode, i.e., the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), is skillfully forecast throughout the 10-year forecast range. In the tropical Pacific, it is found that the correlation skill of the leading EOF mode of tropical Pacific SSTs, i.e., El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the second mode, i.e., ENSO-Modoki, is limited to about two years and one year. A main contributor to forecast skill of the NPGO are the effects of the long-term trend on Pacific SSTs while little impact of the initialization was found. Key Points PDO, ENSO, ENSO-Modoki skill limited to about one to three years NPGO skill due to the long-term trend Model bias of trend in North Pacific SSTs © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63626
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institut Català de Ciències Del Clima, Barcelona, Spain; Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Lienert F.,Doblas-Reyes F.J.. Decadal prediction of interannual tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperature[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(12)