globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/grl.50361
论文题名:
Could a future "grand Solar Minimum" like the Maunder Minimum stop global warming?
作者: Meehl G.A.; Arblaster J.M.; Marsh D.R.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9098
EISSN: 1944-8829
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期:9
起始页码: 1789
结束页码: 1793
语种: 英语
英文关键词: grand solar minimum ; Maunder Minimum ; solar variability ; Sun's effects on Earth's climate
Scopus关键词: Decadal climate variability ; Earth's climate ; Maunder minimum ; Solar minima ; Solar variability ; Surface air temperatures ; Total solar irradiance ; Whole atmosphere community climate models ; Atmospheric chemistry ; Climatology ; Global warming ; Solar radiation ; Sun ; Climate models ; air temperature ; climate prediction ; decadal variation ; future prospect ; global warming ; irradiance ; Maunder Minimum ; ozone ; solar radiation
英文摘要: A future Maunder Minimum type grand solar minimum, with total solar irradiance reduced by 0.25% over a 50 year period from 2020 to 2070, is imposed in a future climate change scenario experiment (RCP4.5) using, for the first time, a global coupled climate model that includes ozone chemistry and resolved stratospheric dynamics (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model). This model has been shown to simulate two amplifying mechanisms that produce regional signals of decadal climate variability comparable to observations, and thus is considered a credible tool to simulate the Sun's effects on Earth's climate. After the initial decrease of solar radiation in 2020, globally averaged surface air temperature cools relative to the reference simulation by up to several tenths of a degree Centigrade. By the end of the grand solar minimum in 2070, the warming nearly catches up to the reference simulation. Thus, a future grand solar minimum could slow down but not stop global warming. Key Points a future grand solar minimum slightly reduces global warmingwhen the solar minimum ends, warming returns to reference levelsa grand solar minimum will not stop global warming ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84879084666&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50361&partnerID=40&md5=4580840435e88f7c192ec062c2479e58
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6362
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307, United States

Recommended Citation:
Meehl G.A.,Arblaster J.M.,Marsh D.R.. Could a future "grand Solar Minimum" like the Maunder Minimum stop global warming?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(9).
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