DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50451
论文题名: Statistical estimations of the number of future ozone exceedances due to climate change in Europe
作者: Varotsos K.V. ; Tombrou M. ; Giannakopoulos C.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 12 起始页码: 6080
结束页码: 6099
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change impact
; ozone exceedances
; statistical model
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Computer simulation
; Ozone
; Principal component analysis
; Statistics
; Climate change impact
; Goddard Institute of Space Studies
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Principal Components
; Regional climate models
; Rotated principal components
; Statistical estimation
; Statistical significance
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; estimation method
; numerical model
; ozone
; policy making
; principal component analysis
; statistical analysis
; temperature effect
; Europe
英文摘要: A statistical model to examine the potential impact of increasing future temperatures due to climate change on ozone exceedances (days with daily maximum 8 h average ≥ 60 ppb) is developed for Europe. We employ gridded observed daily maximum temperatures and hourly ozone observations from nonurban stations across Europe, together with daily maximum temperatures for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 from three regional climate models, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario. A rotated principal components analysis is applied to the ozone stations yielding five principal components, which divide the study domain in five subregions. The historical ozone-temperature relationship is examined and then used to provide estimates of future ozone exceedance days under current emissions and under the assumption that this relationship will retain its main characteristics. Results suggest that increases in the upper temperature percentiles lead to statistically significant increases (95% statistical significance level) of the ozone exceedances for both future periods. The greatest average increases depending on the particular regional climate model range from 5 to 12 extra ozone days/yr for 2021-2050 and from 16 to 25 for 2071-2100, in southeast Europe. The lowest average increases range from 0 to 2 extra ozone days/yr for 2021-2050 and from 2 to 4 for 2071-2100 and are seen in northwest Europe. The simulations with the dynamical Goddard Institute of Space Studies/GEOS-CHEM climate chemistry modeling system shows decreases instead of increases in eastern Europe, higher increases in northwest Europe, whereas for the other subregions similar results to the statistical model are obtained. Key Points Statistical models can complement the dynamical ones Statistical models could provide useful tools for policymakers Greatest increases of climate change impact on ozone are seen in Southern Europe © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63645
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Division of Environmental Physics and Meteorology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece; Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece
Recommended Citation:
Varotsos K.V.,Tombrou M.,Giannakopoulos C.. Statistical estimations of the number of future ozone exceedances due to climate change in Europe[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(12)