DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50475
论文题名: Medicane risk in a changing climate
作者: Romero R. ; Emanuel K.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 12 起始页码: 5992
结束页码: 6001
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; extreme windstorms
; medicanes
; Mediterranean
; return periods
; statistical-deterministic approach
Scopus关键词: Hurricanes
; Maps
; Risk assessment
; Risk perception
; Storms
; extreme windstorms
; medicanes
; Mediterranean
; Return periods
; statistical-deterministic approach
; Climate change
; climate change
; coastal protection
; coastal zone management
; database
; economic analysis
; extreme event
; frequency analysis
; return period
; risk assessment
; risk factor
; tropical cyclone
; Mediterranean Region
英文摘要: Medicanes or "Mediterranean hurricanes" are extreme cyclonic windstorms morphologically and physically similar to tropical cyclones. Owing to their potential destructiveness on the islands and continental coastal zones, medicane risk assessment is of paramount importance. With an average frequency of only one to two events per year and given the lack of systematic, multidecadal databases, an objective evaluation of the long-term risk of medicane-induced winds is impractical with standard methods. Also, there is increasing concern about the way these extreme phenomena could change in frequency or intensity as a result of human influences on climate. Here we apply a statistical-deterministic approach that entails the generation of thousands of synthetic storms, thus enabling a statistically robust assessment of the current and future risk. Fewer medicanes but a higher number of violent storms are projected at the end of the century compared to present, suggesting an increased probability of major economic and social impacts as the century progresses. Key Points Medicane risk is estimated based on the generation of synthetic storms Unprecedented medicane wind risk maps are obtained for the Mediterranean region Future projections reveal fewer medicanes but a higher number of violent storms © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63654
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Departament de Física, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Ctra. de Valldemossa km. 7.5, Palma de Mallorca ES-07122, Spain; Department of Atmospheric Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Romero R.,Emanuel K.. Medicane risk in a changing climate[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(12)