DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50443
论文题名: Historical Antarctic mean sea ice area, sea ice trends, and winds in CMIP5 simulations
作者: Mahlstein I. ; Gent P.R. ; Solomon S.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 11 起始页码: 5105
结束页码: 5110
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Antarctic sea ice
; CMIP5
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Weather modification
; Air temperature changes
; Antarctic regions
; Antarctic sea ice
; CMIP5
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Internal variability
; Observational data
; Satellite measurements
; Sea ice
; climate change
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; marine atmosphere
; sea ice
; trend analysis
; Southern Ocean
英文摘要: In contrast to Arctic sea ice, average Antarctic sea ice area is not retreating but has slowly increased since satellite measurements began in 1979. While most climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive simulate a decrease in Antarctic sea ice area over the recent past, whether these models can be dismissed as being wrong depends on more than just the sign of change compared to observations. We show that internal sea ice variability is large in the Antarctic region, and both the observed and modeled trends may represent natural variations along with external forcing. While several models show a negative trend, only a few of them actually show a trend that is significant compared to their internal variability on the time scales of available observational data. Furthermore, the ability of the models to simulate the mean state of sea ice is also important. The representations of Antarctic sea ice in CMIP5 models have not improved compared to CMIP3 and show an unrealistic spread in the mean state that may influence future sea ice behavior. Finally, Antarctic climate and sea ice area will be affected not only by ocean and air temperature changes but also by changes in the winds. The majority of the CMIP5 models simulate a shift that is too weak compared to observations. Thus, this study identifies several foci for consideration in evaluating and improving the modeling of climate and climate change in the Antarctic region. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63689
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, United States; Now at MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mahlstein I.,Gent P.R.,Solomon S.. Historical Antarctic mean sea ice area, sea ice trends, and winds in CMIP5 simulations[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(11)