DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50269
论文题名: A score-based method for assessing the performance of GCMs: A case study of southeastern Australia
作者: Fu G. ; Liu Z. ; Charles S.P. ; Xu Z. ; Yao Z.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 10 起始页码: 4154
结束页码: 4167
语种: 英语
英文关键词: EOF
; IPCC AR4 20c3m
; general circulation models (GCMs)
; probability density function
; southeastern Australia
; trend analysis
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Probability density function
; Sea level
; Correlation coefficient
; EOF IPCC AR4 20c3m
; General circulation model
; Mean sea level pressures
; Negative correlation
; Regional climate changes
; South-eastern Australia
; Trend analysis
; Rain
; air temperature
; annual cycle
; correlation
; general circulation model
; probability density function
; rainfall
; regional climate
; sea level pressure
; simulation
; trend analysis
; Australia
英文摘要: A multi-criteria score-based method is developed to assess General Circulation Model (GCM) performance at the regional scale. Application of the method assessing 25 GCM simulations of monthly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and air temperature, and monthly and annual rainfall over the southeastern Australia region for 1960/1961-1999/2000 indicate that GCMs usually simulate monthly temperature better than monthly rainfall and mean sea level pressure. For example, the mean observed annual temperature for the study region is 16.7°C while the median and mean values of 25 GCMs are 16.8 and 16.9°C, respectively, and 24 GCMs (except BCC:CM1) can reproduce the annual cycle of temperature accurately, with a minimum correlation coefficient of 0.99. In contrast, the mean observed annual rainfall for the study region is 502 mm, whereas the GCM values vary from 195 to 807 mm, and 12 out of 25 GCMs produce a negative correlation coefficient of monthly rainfall annual cycle. However, GCMs overestimate trend magnitude for temperature, but underestimate for rainfall. The observed annual temperature trend is +0.007°C/yr, while both the median and mean GCM values are +0.013°C/yr, which is almost double the observed magnitude. The observed annual rainfall trend is +0.62mm/yr, while the median and mean values of 25 GCMs are 0.21and 0.36mm/yr, respectively. This demonstrates the advantages of using multi-criteria to assess GCMs performance. The method developed in this study can easily be extended to different study regions and results can be used for better informed regional climate change impact analysis. Key PointsA score based method was developed to assess General Circulation Models (GCMs)The assessment results provide information in selecting suitable GCMsThe method developed can easily be extended to different study region ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63714
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: CSIRO Land and Water, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia; Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Fu G.,Liu Z.,Charles S.P.,et al. A score-based method for assessing the performance of GCMs: A case study of southeastern Australia[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(10)