DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50286
论文题名: Impacts of global warming on Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks in the CMIP5 model suite
作者: Eichler T.P. ; Gaggini N. ; Pan Z.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 10 起始页码: 3919
结束页码: 3932
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; Storm tracks
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Data processing
; Global warming
; Oceanography
; Climate forcings
; Climate prediction
; Climate scenarios
; Intensity distribution
; Northern Hemispheres
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Storm intensity
; Storm track
; Storms
; climate effect
; climate prediction
; data set
; global warming
; Northern Hemisphere
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; storm
; storm track
; winter
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: A key question in assessing how global warming may affect climate is how it may impact day-to-day weather. To help answer this question, we evaluate the frequency and intensity of northern hemisphere storm tracks in the National Center for Climate Prediction reanalysis I dataset, and the historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 climate scenarios featured in the CMIP5 simulations. We found that a warmer climate resulted in a general decrease in storm frequency in midlatitudes, especially in RCP8.5. In contrast, frequency trends in the reanalysis data reflected an increase in the North Pacific consistent with a shift towards a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation and more frequent El Niño events post mid-1970s. An examination of frequency and intensity trends in the active storm track regions of the North Pacific and North Atlantic showed that a significant decrease in storm track frequency was evident for RCP8.5. In contrast, intensity trends were dichotomous, with RCP8.5 exhibiting an increase in intensity in the North Atlantic active storm track region and a decrease in intensity in the North Pacific active storm track region. Poleward of these regions, a significant decrease in storm intensity in the North Atlantic and a significant increase in intensity in the North Pacific in RCP8.5 occurred. We also examined the intensity distribution of storms in the active storm track regions of the North Atlantic and North Pacific and determined that the models produced weaker storms with reduced variability relative to reanalysis data regardless of external climate forcing. Key Points Storm frequency decreases in mid-latitudes due to global warming.Global warming impact on intensity varies between ocean basins.Models produce weaker storms than reanalysis data. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63751
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University, O'Neil Hall 205, 3642 Lindell, Blvd, St. Louis, MO 63108, United States
Recommended Citation:
Eichler T.P.,Gaggini N.,Pan Z.. Impacts of global warming on Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks in the CMIP5 model suite[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(10)