DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50314
论文题名: On the relation between large-scale circulation pattern and heavy rain events over the Hawaiian Islands: Recent trends and future changes
作者: Elison Timm O. ; Takahashi M. ; Giambelluca T.W. ; Diaz H.F.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 10 起始页码: 4129
结束页码: 4141
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Heavy Rain Events
; Regional Climate Change
; Statistical Downscaling
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Anthropogenic climate changes
; Heavy rain event
; Large-scale circulation
; Large-scale circulation patterns
; National center for atmospheric researches
; National centers for environmental predictions
; Regional climate changes
; Statistical downscaling
; Rain
; climate conditions
; data assimilation
; downscaling
; global climate
; oceanic circulation
; precipitation intensity
; regional climate
; troposphere
; water vapor
; weather forecasting
; wet season
; Hawaiian Islands
英文摘要: The aim of this paper is to present a statistical downscaling method in which the relationships between present-day daily weather patterns and local rainfall data are derived and used to project future shifts in the frequency of heavy rainfall events under changing global climate conditions. National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data from wet season months (November to April) 1958-2010 are composited for heavy rain days at 12 rainfall stations in the Hawaiian Islands. The occurrence of heavy rain events (days with amounts above the 90th percentile estimated from all wet season rain days 1958-2010) was found to be strongly correlated with upper level cyclonic circulation anomalies centered northwest of Hawai'i and south-to-north transport of water vapor in the middle troposphere. The statistical downscaling model (SD) developed in this study was able to reproduce the observed interannual variations in the number of heavy rain events based on cross-validation resampling during the more recent interval 1978-2010. However, multidecadal changes associated with the mid-1970s' climate shift were not well reproduced by the SD using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, likely due to inhomogenities in the presatellite period of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Application of the SD to two model scenarios from the CMIP3 database indicates a reduction of heavy rain events in the mid- to late 21st century. Based on these models, the likelihood of a widespread increase in synoptic heavy rain events in Hawai'i as a result of anthropogenic climate change is low over the remainder of the century. Key Points Large-scale circulation can be downscaled onto local heavy rain frequenciesInhomogeneity in daily reanalysis affect evaluation of climate trendsNegative trend in frequency of heavy rain events in Hawaii during 21st century ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63757
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: International Pacific Research Center, SOEST, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, 1680 East-West Rd., Honolulu, HI 96822, United States; Department of Geography, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu HI, United States; Climate Diagnostics Center, NOAA-CIRES, Boulder CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Elison Timm O.,Takahashi M.,Giambelluca T.W.,et al. On the relation between large-scale circulation pattern and heavy rain events over the Hawaiian Islands: Recent trends and future changes[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(10)