DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50260
论文题名: Future projections of heat waves around Japan simulated by CMIP3 and high-resolution Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric climate models
作者: Nakano M. ; Matsueda M. ; Sugi M.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 8 起始页码: 3097
结束页码: 3109
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP3
; global climate model
; global warming
; heat waves
; regional climate model
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Computer simulation
; Global warming
; Sensitivity analysis
; Atmospheric general circulation models
; CMIP3
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Global climate model
; Heat waves
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Regional climate models
; Special report on emissions scenarios
; Climate models
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate modeling
; future prospect
; heat flow
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; marine atmosphere
; mountain region
; regional climate
; Japan
英文摘要: Future changes in heat wave characteristics around Japan are investigated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) model outputs, and high-resolution present-day (1979-2003) and future (2075-2099) climate simulations under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B emission scenario. The high-resolution simulations are conducted using 20, 60, and 180 km mesh atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), as well as a 5 km mesh regional climate model (RCM) nested within the 20 km mesh AGCM. The CMIP3 models project that the frequency of heat wave days (HWF) will increase 22.8, 22.3, and 26.5 d yr-1 in northern, eastern, and western Japan, respectively. The multimodel ensemble spread of future changes in HWF averaged around Japan is large (4-58 d yr -1). The spread is affected by the climate sensitivity of the models and the simulated magnitude of the interannual variation of the daily maximum temperature in present-day climate. In the atmospheric model simulations, the 5 and 20 km mesh models can qualitatively simulate observed HWF distributions, which are affected by steep backbone mountain ranges in Japan. The 5 and 20 km mesh models project large (>30 d yr-1) increases in HWF in the coastal areas of Japan. The duration of heat wave days is projected to increase in areas with increasing HWF. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63796
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-0001, Japan; Clarendon Laboratory, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Meteorological Research Institute, Ibaraki, Tsukuba, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Nakano M.,Matsueda M.,Sugi M.. Future projections of heat waves around Japan simulated by CMIP3 and high-resolution Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric climate models[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(8)