DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50225
论文题名: Regional and local increases in storm intensity in the San Francisco Bay Area, USA, between 1890 and 2010
作者: Russo T.A. ; Fisher A.T. ; Winslow D.M.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 8 起始页码: 3392
结束页码: 3401
语种: 英语
英文关键词: exceedance probability
; extreme precipitation
; regional climate change
Scopus关键词: Information management
; Lasers
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Storms
; Annual precipitation
; Exceedance probability
; Extreme precipitation
; Extreme precipitation events
; Markov chain monte carlo algorithms
; Mean annual precipitation
; Regional climate changes
; Resource management
; Climate change
; climate change
; precipitation intensity
; probability
; regional climate
; risk assessment
; spatiotemporal analysis
; storm
; twentieth century
; California
; San Francisco Bay
; United States
英文摘要: Studies of extreme precipitation have documented changes at the continental scale during the twentieth century, but few studies have quantified changes at small to regional spatial scales during the same time. We analyze historic data from over 600 precipitation stations in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), California, to assess whether there have been statistically significant changes in extreme precipitation between 1890 and 2010. An annual exceedance probability analysis of extreme precipitation events in the SFBA, coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, reveals an increase in the occurrence of large events. The depth-duration-frequency characteristics of maximum annual precipitation events having durations of 1 h to 60 days indicate on average an increase in storm intensity in the last 120 years, with the intensity of the largest (least frequent) events increasing the most. Mean annual precipitation (MAP) also increased during the study period, but the relative increase in extreme event intensity exceeds that of MAP, indicating that a greater fraction of precipitation fell during large events. Analysis of data from subareas within the SFBA region indicates considerable heterogeneity in the observed nonstationarity; for example, the 5 day, 25 year event exceedance depth changed by +26%, +16%, and -1% in San Francisco, Santa Rosa, and San Jose, respectively. These results emphasize the importance of analyzing local data for accurate risk assessment, emergency planning, resource management, and climate model calibration. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63804
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz CA, United States; Columbia Water Center, Columbia University, New York NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Russo T.A.,Fisher A.T.,Winslow D.M.. Regional and local increases in storm intensity in the San Francisco Bay Area, USA, between 1890 and 2010[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(8)