DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50296
论文题名: Testing the robustness of the anthropogenic climate change detection statements using different empirical models
作者: Imbers J. ; Lopez A. ; Huntingford C. ; Allen M.R.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 8 起始页码: 3192
结束页码: 3199
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; detection and attribution
; internal climate variability
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Greenhouse gases
; Surface properties
; Anthropogenic climate changes
; Anthropogenic signals
; Atlantic multidecadal oscillations
; Detection and attributions
; Global mean surface temperature
; Global-mean temperature
; Internal climate variability
; Internal variability
; Climate change
; anthropogenic effect
; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; decadal variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; empirical analysis
; surface temperature
英文摘要: This paper aims to test the robustness of the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change using four different empirical models that were previously developed to explain the observed global mean temperature changes over the last few decades. These studies postulated that the main drivers of these changes included not only the usual natural forcings, such as solar and volcanic, and anthropogenic forcings, such as greenhouse gases and sulfates, but also other known Earth system oscillations such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In this paper, we consider these signals, or forced responses, and test whether or not the anthropogenic signal can be robustly detected under different assumptions for the internal variability of the climate system. We assume that the internal variability of the global mean surface temperature can be described by simple stochastic models that explore a wide range of plausible temporal autocorrelations, ranging from short memory processes exemplified by an AR(1) model to long memory processes, represented by a fractional differenced model. In all instances, we conclude that human-induced changes to atmospheric gas composition is affecting global mean surface temperature changes. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63805
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Oceanic Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Center for the Analysis of Time Series, CCCEP, London School of Economics, London, United Kingdom; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Imbers J.,Lopez A.,Huntingford C.,et al. Testing the robustness of the anthropogenic climate change detection statements using different empirical models[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(8)