DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50255
论文题名: Models versus radiosondes in the free atmosphere: A new detection and attribution analysis of temperature
作者: Lott F.C. ; Stott P.A. ; Mitchell D.M. ; Christidis N. ; Gillett N.P. ; Haimberger L. ; Perlwitz J. ; Thorne P.W.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 6 起始页码: 2609
结束页码: 2619
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospherics
; Climate change
; Greenhouse gases
; Radiosondes
; Anthropogenic influence
; Atmosphere temperature
; Atmospheric columns
; Detection and attributions
; Lower stratosphere
; Model uncertainties
; Spatio-temporal changes
; Stratospheric ozone depletion
; Uncertainty analysis
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; cooling
; data set
; detection method
; greenhouse effect
; greenhouse gas
; irradiance
; ozone depletion
; radiosonde
; stratosphere
; temperature profile
; troposphere
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: [1] This analysis revisits detection and attribution of free atmosphere temperatures from radiosondes, almost a decade after previous studies. Since that time, data sets have not only become longer, but understanding of observational uncertainty has vastly improved. In addition, a coordinated set of experiments exploring the effects of human and natural forcings on past climate change has been made with a new generation of climate models. These advances allow a much more thorough analysis of the effects of modeling and observational uncertainty on attribution results than previously possible. Observational uncertainty is explored using multiple radiosonde reconstructions including those with ensembles of realizations exploring the effects of processing choices. Modeling uncertainty is explored by calculating multiple fingerprints of natural influence (from changes in solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols) and of human influence (due to greenhouse gases and due to the effects of combined anthropogenic forcings including stratospheric ozone depletion). With increased confidence over previous studies, human influences (both greenhouse gas and other anthropogenic forcings) have been detected in spatiotemporal changes in free atmosphere temperature from 1961 to 2010, irrespective of whether the full atmospheric column (30-850 hPa) is examined or purely the troposphere, with stratospheric ozone depletion dominating the cooling that has been observed in the lower stratosphere. Thus the advances of the last decade yield increased confidence that anthropogenic influences have made a substantial contribution to the evolution of free atmosphere temperatures. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63861
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3BP, United Kingdom; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States; Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, NCSU, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lott F.C.,Stott P.A.,Mitchell D.M.,et al. Models versus radiosondes in the free atmosphere: A new detection and attribution analysis of temperature[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(6)