DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50245
论文题名: A new statistical approach to downscale wind speed distributions at a site in northern Europe
作者: Devis A. ; Van Lipzig N.P.M. ; Demuzere M.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 5 起始页码: 2272
结束页码: 2283
语种: 英语
英文关键词: boundary layer
; ECHAM5
; evaluation
; hub-height wind speed
; probability distribution
; statistical downscaling
Scopus关键词: Boundary layers
; Distribution functions
; Probability distributions
; Regression analysis
; Statistics
; ECHAM5
; evaluation
; Global circulation model
; Statistical downscaling
; Statistical regression
; Temperature information
; Wind speed
; Wind speed distribution
; Wind effects
; atmospheric general circulation model
; boundary layer
; data set
; downscaling
; height determination
; numerical model
; probability
; statistical analysis
; wind velocity
; Northern Europe
英文摘要: This paper explores a statistical regression approach to downscale large-scale global circulation model output to the wind speed distribution at the hub-height of tall wind turbines. The methodology is developed for Cabauw, using observational, ERA-Interim and ECHAM5 data. The regression analysis is based on the parameters of the probability distribution functions (pdfs) and includes a variable evaluation prior to the development of the statistical models. During winter ECHAM5 performs very well in representing the ERA-Interim wind speed pdf at hub-height. However, during summer, the hub-height wind speed pdf is not well represented by ECHAM5. A regression analysis shows that during summer-day the hub-height wind speed is strongly linked to the wind speed at higher, skillfully represented levels. The summer-day hub-height wind speed can therefore be skillfully predicted using wind speed pdf parameters of higher levels (R2 of the model using 500 m wind speed scale parameter as a predictor is 0.84). During the summer-night, the stable boundary layer is much shallower and the statistical model shows that solely the higher level wind speed is not able to skillfully predict the hub-height wind speed pdf (R 2 of 0.59). Including temperature information in the downscaling model substantially improves the prediction of the summer-night hub-height wind speed pdf (R2 adjusted of 0.68). © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63866
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Earth and Environmental Sciences, KULeuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, 3001, Heverlee (Leuven), Belgium
Recommended Citation:
Devis A.,Van Lipzig N.P.M.,Demuzere M.. A new statistical approach to downscale wind speed distributions at a site in northern Europe[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(5)