| DOI: | 10.1002/jgrd.50206
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| 论文题名: | Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive |
| 作者: | Biasutti M.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
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| ISSN: | 21698996
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 118, 期:4 | | 起始页码: | 1613
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| 结束页码: | 1623
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | climate change
; CMIP5
; monsoon
; Sahel
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| Scopus关键词: | Arid regions
; Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Drying
; Greenhouse gases
; Rain
; Anthropogenic emissions
; CMIP5
; Historical simulation
; Linear superpositions
; monsoon
; Precipitation change
; Sahel
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Computer simulation
; anthropogenic effect
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; climate forcing
; greenhouse gas
; nature-society relations
; rainfall
; sea surface temperature
; seasonality
; semiarid region
; timescale
; trend analysis
; twentieth century
; warming
; Sahara
; West Africa
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| 英文摘要: | The simulations of the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) strengthen previous assessments of a substantial role of anthropogenic emissions in driving precipitation changes in the Sahel, the semiarid region at the southern edge of the Sahara. Historical simulations can capture the magnitude of the centennial Sahel drying over the span of the 20th century and confirm that anthropogenic forcings have contributed substantially to it. Yet, the models do not reproduce the amplitude of observed oscillations at multidecadal timescales, suggesting that either oscillations in the forcing or the strength of natural variability are underestimated. Projections for Sahel rainfall are less robust than the 20th century hindcast and outlier projections persist, but overall the CMIP5 models confirm the CMIP3 results in many details and reaffirm the prediction of a rainy season that is more feeble at its start, especially in West Africa, and more abundant at its core across the entire Sahel. Out of 20 models, four buck this consensus. Idealized simulations from a subset of the CMIP5 ensemble - simulations designed to separate the fast land-atmosphere response to increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the slow response mediated through changes in sea surface temperature (SST) - confirm that the direct effect of CO2 is to enhance the monsoon, while warmer SST induce drying over the Sahel. At the same time, these simulations suggest that the seasonal evolution of the rainfall trends in the scenario simulations, spring drying and fall wetting, is an inherently coupled response, not captured by the linear superposition of the fast and slow response to CO2. Key PointsAnthropogenic forcing contributed to past drought in the Sahel.Projections are converging on a delay and intensification of the rainy season.land-ocean interactions are important for the response © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63902
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, 61 Route 9W., Palisades, NY 10964-8000, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Biasutti M.. Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(4)
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