DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50139
论文题名: Regional-scale rainfall projections: Simulations for the New Guinea region using the CCAM model
作者: Smith I. ; Moise A. ; Katzfey J. ; Nguyen K. ; Colman R.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 3 起始页码: 1271
结束页码: 1280
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CCAM
; monsoon
; New Guinea
; projections
; rainfall
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Computer simulation
; Rain
; CCAM
; Coarse-scale models
; Global climate model
; monsoon
; New Guinea
; projections
; Spatial variability
; Topographic features
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; comparative study
; mountain
; railway
; regional pattern
; simulation
; theoretical study
; weather forecasting
; New Guinea
英文摘要: A common problem with global climate models is the fact that their grids do not always resolve important topographic features which determine the spatial variability of rainfall at regional scales. Here we present and compare simulations of rainfall for the relatively mountainous New Guinea region from six relatively coarse resolution climate models and the corresponding results using a higher resolution model (the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model - CCAM). While the large-scale climatological mean rainfall from both the coarse models and CCAM tend to be similar, unsurprisingly, the CCAM results better reflect some of the important topographic effects. However, the results for projected changes (under the A2 emissions scenario) to rainfall for later this century reveal some important differences. The coarse-scale results indicate relatively smooth patterns of projected change consistent with the representations of the underlying topography, but over New Guinea, there is little agreement on the sign of the change. The CCAM projections show greater spatial detail and better agreement among the six members. These indicate that West Papua and the relatively wet northern and southern mountain slopes may get wetter during December to February - the peak of the Austral monsoon season, and the highland regions may actually become drier during June to August - the dry season. These results are consistent with the theoretical concept that warmer temperatures may lead to increases over already wet regions and decreases over the relatively drier regions - the so-called "rich-get-richer" mechanism. They also highlight the fact that the climate of mountainous regions can be relatively complex and indicate potential difficulties that can arise when attempting to synthesize regional-scale projections from coarse-scale models. Key pointsThe CCAM model results appear more realistic over New Guinea compared to GCMsCCAM rainfall projections appear more complex yet more consistent than the GCMsCoarse-scale GCM rainfall projections may be misleading at regional scales ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63940
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Marine and Atmospheric Research, CSIRO, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Smith I.,Moise A.,Katzfey J.,et al. Regional-scale rainfall projections: Simulations for the New Guinea region using the CCAM model[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(3)