DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50174
论文题名: Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models
作者: Forster P.M. ; Andrews T. ; Good P. ; Gregory J.M. ; Jackson L.S. ; Zelinka M.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 3 起始页码: 1139
结束页码: 1150
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate sensitivity
; CMIP5
; forcing
; model spread
; rapid adjustment
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Climate change
; Computer simulation
; Climate sensitivity
; CMIP5
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; forcing
; Integrated assessment models
; rapid adjustment
; Regression techniques
; Temperature changes
; Climate models
; aerosol
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; comparative study
; concentration (composition)
; energy budget
; estimation method
; radiative forcing
; regression analysis
; sensitivity analysis
英文摘要: We utilize energy budget diagnostics from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate the models' climate forcing since preindustrial times employing an established regression technique. The climate forcing evaluated this way, termed the adjusted forcing (AF), includes a rapid adjustment term associated with cloud changes and other tropospheric and land-surface changes. We estimate a 2010 total anthropogenic and natural AF from CMIP5 models of 1.9 ± 0.9 W m-2 (5-95% range). The projected AF of the Representative Concentration Pathway simulations are lower than their expected radiative forcing (RF) in 2095 but agree well with efficacy weighted forcings from integrated assessment models. The smaller AF, compared to RF, is likely due to cloud adjustment. Multimodel time series of temperature change and AF from 1850 to 2100 have large intermodel spreads throughout the period. The intermodel spread of temperature change is principally driven by forcing differences in the present day and climate feedback differences in 2095, although forcing differences are still important for model spread at 2095. We find no significant relationship between the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of a model and its 2003 AF, in contrast to that found in older models where higher ECS models generally had less forcing. Given the large present-day model spread, there is no indication of any tendency by modelling groups to adjust their aerosol forcing in order to produce observed trends. Instead, some CMIP5 models have a relatively large positive forcing and overestimate the observed temperature change. Key PointsRadiative forcing of RCP scenarios in 2095 is underestimatedCMIP5 models have a large spread in temperature changes and radiative forcingClimate sensitivity was not adjusted to reproduce observed temperature trends ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63942
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Center, Exeter, United Kingdom; NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, United Kingdom; PCMDI, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, United States
Recommended Citation:
Forster P.M.,Andrews T.,Good P.,et al. Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(3)