DOI: 10.1029/2012JD018139
论文题名: Comprehensive evaluation of polar weather research and forecasting model performance in the antarctic
作者: Bromwich D.H. ; Otieno F.O. ; Hines K.M. ; Manning K.W. ; Shilo E.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 2 起始页码: 274
结束页码: 292
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Boundary conditions
; Computer simulation
; Uncertainty analysis
; Comprehensive evaluation
; Geo-potential heights
; Horizontal resolution
; Large-scale circulation
; Lateral boundary conditions
; Short-wave radiation
; Upper-air temperature
; Weather research and forecasting models
; Weather forecasting
; air temperature
; atmospheric modeling
; boundary condition
; dew point
; forecasting method
; ice sheet
; low temperature
; polar region
; tropopause
; Antarctica
英文摘要: Recent versions of the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting model are evaluated over the Antarctic to assess the impact of model improvements, resolution, large-scale circulation variability, and uncertainty in initial and lateral boundary conditions. The model skill differs more between forecasts using different sources of lateral boundary data than between forecasts from different model versions or simulated years. Using the ERA-Interim reanalysis for initial and lateral boundary conditions produces the best skill. The forecasts have a cold summer and a warm winter bias in 2m air temperatures, with similar but smaller bias in dew point temperatures. Upper air temperature biases are small and remain less than 1 °C except at the tropopause in summer. Geopotential height biases increase with height in both seasons. Deficient downward longwave radiation in all seasons and an under representation of clouds enhance radiative loss, leading to the cold summer bias. Excess summer surface incident shortwave radiation plays a secondary role, because 80% of it is reflected, leading to greater skill for clear compared with cloudy skies. The positive wind speed bias produces a warm surface bias in winter resulting from anomalously large downward flux of sensible heat toward the surface. Low temperatures on the continent limit sublimation and hence the precipitable water amounts over the ice sheet. ERA-Interim experiments with higher precipitable water showed reduced biases in downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation. Increasing horizontal resolution from 60 to 15 km improves the skill of surface wind forecasts. © 2012. American Geophysical Union. 资助项目: ANT-1135171
; NNX08AN57G
; NSF ANT-1049089
; NSF OPP- 0838967
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63983
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Byrd Polar Research Center, Polar Meteorology Group, Ohio State University, 1090 Carmack Road, Columbus, OH 43210, United States; Department of Geography, Atmospheric Sciences Program, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Israeli Meteorological Service, Bet Dagan, Israel
Recommended Citation:
Bromwich D.H.,Otieno F.O.,Hines K.M.,et al. Comprehensive evaluation of polar weather research and forecasting model performance in the antarctic[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(2)