DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2017.08.024
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85028514354
论文题名: Geographical variation in climatic drivers of the pine processionary moth population dynamics
作者: Toïgo M. ; Barraquand F. ; Barnagaud J.-Y. ; Piou D. ; Jactel H.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN: 0378-1127
出版年: 2017
卷: 404 起始页码: 141
结束页码: 155
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Forecast
; Insect
; Outbreaks
; Pine processionary moth
; Time series
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Dynamics
; Ecology
; Forecasting
; Forestry
; Population dynamics
; Population statistics
; Regression analysis
; Sensitivity analysis
; Time series
; Biogeographical regions
; Demographic fluctuations
; Environmental conditions
; Geographical variability
; Increasing temperatures
; Insect
; Outbreaks
; Pine processionary moth
; Climate change
; Hexapoda
; Thaumetopoea pityocampa
英文摘要: Geographical variation in forest insect sensitivity to environmental conditions is often overlooked. Yet considering regional variation in response to climate is necessary to better predict the consequences of climate change on pest population dynamics and associated damage. We investigated the climatic drivers of demographic fluctuations in a forest tree defoliator, the pine processionary moth (PPM), in 8 biogeographical regions in France. We studied the effects of precipitation and temperature for both cold and warm periods, in accordance with PPM biology. We trained second-order log-linear models of infestation dynamics based on records spanning over 32 years (1981–2014) and 1239 forest plots, and tested their forecast accuracy on two additional years (2013–2014). PPM population growth rate decreased with higher precipitations in 5 regions and increased with increasing temperatures in the cold period in 4 regions. The magnitude and direction of temperature effects in the warm period varied among biogeographical regions. Our results also revealed that PPM population dynamics were largely triggered by density-dependent factors independent from climatic drivers. Short-term forecasts were generally accurate irrespective of the inclusion of climatic variables into the models. To better predict the consequences of climate change on insect population dynamics, it is advisable to take geographical variability of species response into account and develop regional forecasting models. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/64108
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Biogeco, INRA, Univ. Bordeaux, Cestas, France; University of Bordeaux, Integrative and Theoretical Ecology Chair, LabEx COTE, Pessac, France; Biogéographie et Ecologie des Vertébrés – UMR5175 CEFE, CNRS, PSL Research University, EPHE, UM, SupAgro, IND, INRA, 1919 route de Mende, Montpellier, France; Ministère de l'Agriculture, de l'Agroalimentaire et de la Forêt, DGAL-SDQSPV, Département de la Santé des Forêts, 252 rue de Vaugirard, Paris, France
Recommended Citation:
Toïgo M.,Barraquand F.,Barnagaud J.-Y.,et al. Geographical variation in climatic drivers of the pine processionary moth population dynamics[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2017-01-01,404