DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2017.08.039
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85028701451
论文题名: A framework for developing safe and effective large-fire response in a new fire management paradigm
作者: Dunn C.J. ; Thompson M.P. ; Calkin D.E.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN: 0378-1127
出版年: 2017
卷: 404 起始页码: 184
结束页码: 196
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Decision support
; Fire management
; Fire suppression planning
; Operational research models
; Risk management
Scopus关键词: Artificial intelligence
; Decision support systems
; Fires
; Risk management
; Decision supports
; Ecological and economic
; Fire management
; Fire suppression
; Operational research
; Probability of success
; Risk-informed decision making
; Wildland urban interface
; Decision making
英文摘要: The impacts of wildfires have increased in recent decades because of historical forest and fire management, a rapidly changing climate, and an increasingly populated wildland urban interface. This increasingly complex fire environment highlights the importance of developing robust tools to support risk-informed decision making. While tools have been developed to aid fire management, few have focused on large-fire management and those that have typically simplified the decision environment such that they are not operationally relevant. Additionally, fire managers need to be able to evaluate alternative response strategies that lead to tradeoff analyses balancing fire impacts, responder exposure, financial and resource investments, and probability of success. In this review, we describe limitations in existing operational research models from the perspective of large fire management decisions. We identify a broader set of objectives, decisions and constraints to be integrated into the next generation operational research models. Including these changes would support evaluation of a suite of response options and the efficient resource packages necessary to achieve response objectives, aiding decision maker's ability to minimize responder exposure while reducing the social, ecological and economic impacts of wildfires. We follow with a proposed framework for expanding current large fire decision support systems, and conclude by briefly highlighting critical research needs and organizational changes necessary to create and implement these tools and overcome the negative consequences of positive feedbacks derived from historical and current wildfire management policies and strategies. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/64113
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: College of Forestry, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States; Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, MT, United States
Recommended Citation:
Dunn C.J.,Thompson M.P.,Calkin D.E.. A framework for developing safe and effective large-fire response in a new fire management paradigm[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2017-01-01,404