DOI: 10.1002/grl.50264
论文题名: The 1970's shift in ENSO dynamics: A linear inverse model perspective
作者: Aiken C.M. ; Santoso A. ; McGregor S. ; England M.H.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9160
EISSN: 1944-8891
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 8 起始页码: 1612
结束页码: 1617
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate shift
; ENSO
; linear inverse models
Scopus关键词: Amplitude variations
; Climate shifts
; ENSO
; Equatorial Pacific
; Fundamental changes
; Linear inverse models
; Natural variability
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Dynamics
; Inverse problems
; Linear systems
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; linear programing
; simulation
; stochasticity
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
英文摘要: Inverse methods are used to investigate whether the observed changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) character since the 1970's climate shift are consistent with a change in the linear ENSO dynamics. Linear Inverse Models (LIMs) are constructed from tropical sea surface temperature (SST), thermocline depth, and zonal wind stress anomalies from the periods 1958-1977 and 1978-1997. Each LIM possesses a single eigenmode that strongly resembles the observed ENSO in frequency and phase propagation character over the respective periods. Extended stochastically forced simulations using these and the LIM from the combined period are then used to test the hypothesis that differences in observed ENSO character can be reproduced without changes in the linear ENSO dynamics. The frequency and amplitude variations of ENSO seen in each period can be reproduced by any of the three LIMs. However, changes in the direction of zonal SST anomaly propagation in the equatorial Pacific cannot be explained within the paradigm of a single autonomous stochastically forced linear system. This result is suggestive of a possible fundamental change in the dynamical operator governing ENSO and supports the utility of zonal phase propagation, rather than ENSO frequency or amplitude, for diagnosing changes in ENSO dynamics. Key Points Observed changes in the direction of SST propagation imply altered ENSO dynamics ENSO amplitude/frequency changes are not discernible from natural variability Linear Inverse Models capture the 1970s shift in ENSO character. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84877993123&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50264&partnerID=40&md5=5f53306c0b61d6d06f01ddf16f3f27c3
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6424
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Climate Change Research Center (CCRC), University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Aiken C.M.,Santoso A.,McGregor S.,et al. The 1970's shift in ENSO dynamics: A linear inverse model perspective[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(8).