DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2017.04.008
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85017506351
论文题名: Predicting the risk of mountain pine beetle spread to eastern pine forests: Considering uncertainty in uncertain times
作者: Cooke B.J. ; Carroll A.L.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN: 0378-1127
出版年: 2017
卷: 396 起始页码: 11
结束页码: 25
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Invasion biology
; Mountain pine beetle
; Nonlinear dynamics
; Population dynamics
; Risk assessment
; Spread control
; Uncertainty cascades
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Dynamics
; Ecology
; Ecosystems
; Forecasting
; Forestry
; Landforms
; Population dynamics
; Risk assessment
; Adaptive capacity
; Ecosystem changes
; Ecosystem process
; Mountain pine beetle
; Natural conditions
; Robust predictions
; Scientific uncertainty
; System transitions
; Climate change
; beetle
; biological invasion
; climate change
; coniferous forest
; population dynamics
; risk assessment
; uncertainty analysis
; Alberta
; Canada
; Rocky Mountains
; Coleoptera
; Hexapoda
; Pinus mugo
英文摘要: Since the mountain pine beetle (MPB) breached the Rocky Mountains and first appeared in the province of Alberta, Canada, in alarming numbers in the summer of 2005, it has spread eastward across Alberta at an average rate of 80 km/year. In the absence of aggressive control, the beetle will undoubtedly continue to spread eastward. The spread rate is expected to slow as the leading edge invasion front moves further from significant population sources in the dense pine of the Rocky Mountain foothills into the scattered pine of the boreal plains region. However, the realized rate of spread is uncertain, as it will be regulated by a number of factors, some of which are uncertain (e.g. how an insect behaves in a novel environment), inherently unpredictable (e.g. weather), or under human control (e.g. spread control efforts). Whereas previous studies have examined factors affecting spread individually, we present a synthetic framework that models future spread rates as a function of coupled nonlinear recruitment dynamics that arise from the distinct population phases of MPB, and correlated thermal response functions that are characteristic of the influence of climate and climate change on ecosystem processes. We analyzed the model's behavior under two climatic driving scenarios (drying climate and warming climate) and one forest health scenario (an increase in the ratio of stressed to vigorous trees), with the hypothesis that these scenarios would produce unanticipated outcomes in the severity and timing of beetle outbreaks. Our results showed a classic “tipping-point” model capable of generating sudden, unanticipated behavior, demonstrating that MPB populations may respond very strongly to small changes in climate. The MPB may be the first of many systems to behave in unprecedented ways. The model makes clear that the eastward rate of spread will depend on whether, when, and where the system transitions from the current epidemic state to a new endemic state. However, major uncertainties in the system limit our ability to make robust predictions of spread under natural conditions. The integrating framework presented here provides insight into scientific uncertainties worth targeting for applied research into spread management. In the absence of ability to predict beetle spread, forest management should continue to explore ways of coping with unpredictable disturbances, including adaptive capacity to adjust to transformational ecosystem changes expected under climate change. © 2017 Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/64330
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forestry Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, AB, Canada; Department of Forest & Conservation Sciences, The University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Cooke B.J.,Carroll A.L.. Predicting the risk of mountain pine beetle spread to eastern pine forests: Considering uncertainty in uncertain times[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2017-01-01,396