DOI: 10.1002/grl.50301
论文题名: A novel method to test for significant trends in extreme values in serially dependent time series
作者: Franzke C.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9174
EISSN: 1944-8905
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 7 起始页码: 1391
结束页码: 1395
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Extremes
; Quantile Regression
; Significance Test
Scopus关键词: Antarctic Peninsula
; Cold temperatures
; Extremes
; Multivariate regression
; Multivariate regression analysis
; Quantile regression
; Significance test
; Statistical significance
; Carbon dioxide
; Time series
; Regression analysis
; carbon dioxide
; carbon emission
; data set
; extreme event
; ozone
; time series
; trend analysis
; warming
; Antarctic Peninsula
; Antarctica
; West Antarctica
英文摘要: We propose a novel method to investigate the statistical significance of trends of extreme values in serially correlated time series based on quantile regression and surrogate data. This method has the advantage over traditional extreme value methods that it takes into account all data points from the time series. We test this method on a temperature time series from the Antarctic Peninsula (Faraday/Vernadsky station), which is highly non-Gaussian and serially correlated. We find evidence for a significant upward nonlinear trend in the extreme cold temperatures (95th percentile) and that most of the observed warming at Faraday/Vernadsky is due to a reduction in cold extremes. Quantile regression can also be used for multivariate regression with external factors. This multivariate regression analysis suggests that CO 2 emissions play a large role in the observed trend at Faraday/Vernadsky while also the ozone hole and solar fluctuations play some role. Key Points Novel method to test significance of changes in extremes Method can attribute the changes in extremes to external factors Observed warming at Faraday is mainly due decrease of cold extremes ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84876891867&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50301&partnerID=40&md5=ae822b9382d851c31aa73d11daad317c
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6438
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Madingley Road, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Franzke C.. A novel method to test for significant trends in extreme values in serially dependent time series[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(7).