DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2017.01.027
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85011994913
论文题名: The normal fire environment—Modeling environmental suitability for large forest wildfires using past, present, and future climate normals
作者: Davis R. ; Yang Z. ; Yost A. ; Belongie C. ; Cohen W.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN: 0378-1127
出版年: 2017
卷: 390 起始页码: 173
结束页码: 186
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Fire environment
; Fire rotation period
; PRISM, NEX-DCP30
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Deforestation
; Fire protection
; Fires
; Forestry
; Geographical distribution
; Greenhouse gases
; Rotation
; Climate projection
; Empirical estimate
; Fire environment
; Fire protection agencies
; Maximum temperature
; Predictor variables
; Rotation period
; Season precipitation
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; concentration (composition)
; downscaling
; elevation
; fire behavior
; forest fire
; future prospect
; greenhouse gas
; precipitation (climatology)
; slope angle
; spatiotemporal analysis
; temperature
; temporal variation
; Coast Ranges
; Pacific Northwest
; Puget Lowland
; United States
; Washington [United States]
英文摘要: We modeled the normal fire environment for occurrence of large forest wildfires (>40 ha) for the Pacific Northwest Region of the United States. Large forest wildfire occurrence data from the recent climate normal period (1971–2000) was used as the response variable and fire season precipitation, maximum temperature, slope, and elevation were used as predictor variables. A projection of our model onto the 2001–2030 climate normal period showed strong agreement between model predictions and the area of forest burned by large wildfires from 2001 to 2015 (independent fire data). We then used downscaled climate projections for two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and over 30 climate models to project changes in environmental suitability for large forest fires over the 21st century. Results indicated an increasing proportion of forested area with fire environments more suitable for the occurrence of large wildfires over the next century for all ecoregions but less pronounced for the Coast Range and Puget Lowlands. The largest increases occurred on federal lands, while private and state lands showed less. We calculated fire rotation periods for the recent historical and current climate and examined the relative differences between them and our modeled large wildfire suitability classes. By the end of the century, the models predicted shorter fire rotation periods, with cooler/moister forests experiencing larger magnitudes of change than warmer/drier forests. Modeling products, including a set of time series maps, can provide forest resource managers, fire protection agencies, and policy-makers empirical estimates of how much and where climate change might affect the geographic distribution of large wildfires and effect fire rotations. © 2017 Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/64442
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR, United States; Department of Forest Ecosystem and Society, Oregon State University, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR, United States; Oregon Department of Forestry, 2600 State Street, Salem, OR, United States; U.S. Forest Service, National Interagency Fire Center, 3833 South Development Ave, Boise, ID, United States; U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR, United States
Recommended Citation:
Davis R.,Yang Z.,Yost A.,et al. The normal fire environment—Modeling environmental suitability for large forest wildfires using past, present, and future climate normals[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2017-01-01,390