| DOI: | 10.1002/grl.50334
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| 论文题名: | Probable maximum precipitation and climate change |
| 作者: | Kunkel K.E.; Karl T.R.; Easterling D.R.; Redmond K.; Young J.; Yin X.; Hennon P.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9185
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| EISSN: | 1944-8916
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 40, 期:7 | | 起始页码: | 1402
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| 结束页码: | 1408
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Climate Change
; Probable Maximum Precipitation
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric moisture content
; Atmospheric water vapor
; Clausius-Clapeyron relationship
; Climate model simulations
; Moisture transport
; Probable maximum precipitation
; Temperature changes
; Water vapor concentration
; Atmospheric movements
; Climate models
; Computer simulation
; Moisture
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Vapors
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; moisture content
; optimization
; precipitation (climatology)
; probability
; vulnerability
; water vapor
; United States
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| 英文摘要: | Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is the greatest accumulation of precipitation for a given duration meteorologically possible for an area. Climate change effects on PMP are analyzed, in particular, maximization of moisture and persistent upward motion, using both climate model simulations and conceptual models of relevant meteorological systems. Climate model simulations indicate a substantial future increase in mean and maximum water vapor concentrations. For the RCP8.5 scenario, the changes in maximum values for the continental United States are approximately 20%-30% by 2071-2100. The magnitudes of the maximum water vapor changes follow temperature changes with an approximate Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Model-simulated changes in maximum vertical and horizontal winds are too small to offset water vapor changes. Thus, our conclusion is that the most scientifically sound projection is that PMP values will increase in the future due to higher levels of atmospheric moisture content and consequent higher levels of moisture transport into storms. Key Points Maximum atmospheric water vapor will increase in the future Estimates of Probable Maximum Precipitation will increase commensurately Dams and other similar structures are vulnerable to future climate change ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84876938884&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50334&partnerID=40&md5=206505bac20e746e44c918e8f4eb8121
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6449
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | NOAA Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Kunkel K.E.,Karl T.R.,Easterling D.R.,et al. Probable maximum precipitation and climate change[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(7).
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