DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2016.05.020
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84970016093
论文题名: Contributing factors for drought in United States forest ecosystems under projected future climates and their uncertainty
作者: Luce C.H. ; Vose J.M. ; Pederson N. ; Campbell J. ; Millar C. ; Kormos P. ; Woods R.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN: 0378-1127
出版年: 2016
卷: 380 起始页码: 299
结束页码: 308
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate modes
; Drought
; Forests
; Projections
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Ecology
; Ecosystems
; Forestry
; Snow
; Climate modes
; Ecological consequences
; Forests
; Precipitation variation
; Projections
; Seasonal precipitations
; Sources of uncertainty
; Vapor pressure deficit
; Drought
英文摘要: Observations of increasing global forest die-off related to drought are leading to more questions about potential increases in drought occurrence, severity, and ecological consequence in the future. Dry soils and warm temperatures interact to affect trees during drought; so understanding shifting risks requires some understanding of changes in both temperature and precipitation. Unfortunately, strong precipitation uncertainties in climate models yield substantial uncertainty in projections of drought occurrence. We argue that disambiguation of drought effects into temperature and precipitation-mediated processes can alleviate some of the implied uncertainty. In particular, the disambiguation can clarify geographic diversity in forest sensitivity to multifarious drivers of drought and mortality, making more specific use of geographically diverse climate projections. Such a framework may provide forest managers with an easier heuristic in discerning geographically diverse adaptation options. Warming temperatures in the future mean three things with respect to drought in forests: (1) droughts, typically already unusually hot periods, will become hotter, (2) the drying capacity of the air, measured as the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) will become greater, and (3) a smaller fraction of precipitation will fall as snow. More hot-temperature extremes will be more stressful in a direct way to living tissue, and greater VPD will increase pressure gradients within trees, exacerbating the risk of hydraulic failure. Reduced storage in snowpacks reduces summer water availability in some places. Warmer temperatures do not directly cause drier soils, however. In a hydrologic sense, warmer temperatures do little to cause “drought” as defined by water balances. Instead, much of the future additional longwave energy flux is expected to cause warming rather than evaporating water. Precipitation variations, in contrast, affect water balances and moisture availability directly; so uncertainties in future precipitation generate uncertainty in drought occurrence and severity projections. Although specific projections in annual and seasonal precipitation are uncertain, changes in inter-storm spacing and precipitation type (snow vs. rain) have greater certainty and may have utility in improving spatial projections of drought as perceived by vegetation, a value not currently captured by simple temperature-driven evaporation projections. This review ties different types of future climate shifts to expected consequences for drought and potential influences on physiology, and then explains sources of uncertainty for consideration in future mortality projections. One intention is to provide guidance on partitioning of uncertainty in projections of forest stresses. © 2016 Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/64702
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Boise, ID, United States; USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Raleigh, NC, United States; Harvard Forest, Petersham, MA, United States; USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Durham, NH, United States; USDA Forest Service, Southwestern Research Station, Albany, CA, United States; USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Albany, CA, United States; Faculty of Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Luce C.H.,Vose J.M.,Pederson N.,et al. Contributing factors for drought in United States forest ecosystems under projected future climates and their uncertainty[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2016-01-01,380