| DOI: | 10.1002/grl.50179
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| 论文题名: | Regional climate impacts of a biofuels policy projection |
| 作者: | Anderson C.J.; Anex R.P.; Arritt R.W.; Gelder B.K.; Khanal S.; Herzmann D.E.; Gassman P.W.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9221
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| EISSN: | 1944-8952
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 40, 期:6 | | 起始页码: | 1217
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| 结束页码: | 1222
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | biofuels
; regional climate change
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| Scopus关键词: | Agricultural land use
; Agricultural production system
; Atmospheric forcing
; Biofuel production
; Higher relative humidity
; Increase productions
; Regional climate changes
; Regional climate models
; Biology
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Crops
; Economics
; Forestry
; Land use
; Productivity
; Soil moisture
; Biofuels
; agricultural policy
; biofuel
; climate change
; climate modeling
; crop production
; economic analysis
; grass
; land use change
; low temperature
; numerical model
; phenology
; policy making
; regional climate
; relative humidity
; soil moisture
; soil water
; Great Plains
; Kansas
; Oklahoma [United States]
; United States
; Panicum virgatum
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| 英文摘要: | The potential for regional climate change arising from adoption of policies to increase production of biofuel feedstock is explored using a regional climate model. Two simulations are performed using the same atmospheric forcing data for the period 1979-2004, one with present-day land use and monthly phenology and the other with land use specified from an agro-economic prediction of energy crop distribution and monthly phenology consistent with this land use change. In Kansas and Oklahoma, where the agro-economic model predicts 15-30% conversion to switchgrass, the regional climate model simulates locally lower temperature (especially in spring), slightly higher relative humidity in spring and slightly lower relative humidity in summer, and summer depletion of soil moisture. This shows the potential for climate impacts of biofuel policies and raises the question of whether soil water depletion may limit biomass crop productivity in agricultural areas that are responsive to the policies. We recommend the use of agronomic models to evaluate the possibility that soil moisture depletion could reduce productivity of biomass crops in this region. We conclude, therefore, that agro-economic and climate models should be used iteratively to examine an ensemble of agricultural land use and climate scenarios, thereby reducing the possibility of unforeseen consequences from rapid changes in agricultural production systems. Key Points Climate change in the Great Plains U. S. can result from of biofuel policies Great Plains soil water may be insufficient to support biofuel production Regional feedback requires interactive regional agro-economic-climate models. ©2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84876888405&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50179&partnerID=40&md5=c5ab9c5fbbf83e0d82ec3da792b2a3b7
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6485
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Dept. of Agronomy, Iowa State University, 2104 Agronomy Hall, Ames, IA 500111010, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Anderson C.J.,Anex R.P.,Arritt R.W.,et al. Regional climate impacts of a biofuels policy projection[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(6).
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