DOI: 10.1002/grl.50285
论文题名: Detecting human influence on extreme temperatures in China
作者: Wen Q.H. ; Zhang X. ; Xu Y. ; Wang B.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9244
EISSN: 1944-8975
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 6 起始页码: 1171
结束页码: 1176
语种: 英语
英文关键词: detection and attribution
; extreme temperature
; optimal fingerprint
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic aerosols
; Anthropogenic forcing
; Anthropogenic influence
; Detection and attributions
; Extreme temperatures
; optimal fingerprint
; Spatiotemporal patterns
; Volcanic activities
; Computer simulation
; Greenhouse gases
; Land use
; Optimization
; Separation
; Solar radiation
; Signal analysis
; aerosol
; anthropogenic effect
; atmospheric forcing
; climate change
; greenhouse gas
; human activity
; land use change
; numerical model
; spatiotemporal analysis
; temperature effect
; China
英文摘要: This study compares observed and model-simulated spatiotemporal patterns of changes in Chinese extreme temperatures during 1961-2007 using an optimal detection method. Four extreme indices, namely annual maximum daily maximum (TXx) and daily minimum (TNx) temperatures and annual minimum daily maximum (TXn) and daily minimum (TNn) temperatures, are studied. Model simulations are conducted with the CanESM2, which include six 5-member ensembles under different historical forcings, i.e., four individual external forcings (greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosol, land use change, and solar irradiance), combined effect of natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic activity), and combined effect of all external forcings (both natural and anthropogenic forcings). We find that anthropogenic influence is clearly detectable in extreme temperatures over China. Additionally, anthropogenic forcing can also be separated from natural forcing in two-signal analyses. The influence of natural forcings cannot be detected in any analysis. Moreover, there are indications that the effects of greenhouse gases and/or land use change may be separated from other anthropogenic forcings in warm extremes TXx and TNx in joint two-signal analyses. These results suggest that further investigations of roles of individual anthropogenic forcing are justified, particularly in studies of extremely warm temperatures over China. Key Points Anthropogenic influence is clearly detectable in China's extreme temperatures Human influence is separated from that of natural forcing in two-signal analysis Effect of greenhouse gas is separated from that of other anthropogenic forcings. ©2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84876934535&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50285&partnerID=40&md5=84c9a61e797807e51a6c9cbbc6de3a0b
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6508
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Recommended Citation:
Wen Q.H.,Zhang X.,Xu Y.,et al. Detecting human influence on extreme temperatures in China[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(6).