DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2015.10.048
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84946866667
论文题名: Variance decomposition of predictions of stem biomass increment for European beech: Contribution of selected sources of uncertainty
作者: Horemans J.A. ; Bosela M. ; Dobor L. ; Barna M. ; Bahyl J. ; Deckmyn G. ; Fabrika M. ; Sedmak R. ; Ceulemans R.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN: 0378-1127
出版年: 2016
卷: 361 起始页码: 46
结束页码: 55
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate scenario
; Empirical model
; Fagus sylvatica L
; Forest management
; Process-based model
Scopus关键词: Biomass
; Climate change
; Forecasting
; Forestry
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate scenarios
; Empirical model
; European beech (fagus sylvatica l.)
; Fagus sylvatica L
; Process-based modeling
; Regional climate models
; Sources of uncertainty
; Variance decomposition
; Climate models
; biomass
; climate change
; deciduous tree
; decomposition
; empirical analysis
; forest management
; prediction
; regional climate
; spatiotemporal analysis
; stem
; uncertainty analysis
; variance analysis
; Slovakia
; Fagus sylvatica
英文摘要: The contribution of selected sources of uncertainty to the total variance of model simulation results of stem biomass increment - calculated from annual stem biomass predictions - of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) was quantified. Sources of uncertainty were defined as the selected variables that influence the total variance of the model results. Simulations were made: (i) for ten regional climate models (RCMs) based on the IPCC scenario A1B and providing an ensemble of climate projections up to 2100; (ii) with two forest model types (FMTYPEs); (iii) for four forest management intensities (MANFORs); and (iv) for three time windows (TIMEWINDs), each spanning 15. years, starting in 2019, in 2049 and in 2079. Both models, the empirical SIBYLA model and the process-based ANAFORE model, were calibrated using experimental tree growth data from four plots in central Slovakia between 1989 and 2003. Three of these plots, representing the four MANFORs, were subject to different prior intensities of thinning while one was left untouched as a control. The FMTYPE explained most of the total variance in the simulation results (39.9%), followed by MANFOR (i.e. thinning intensity; 22.2%) and TIMEWIND (12.0%), while the effect of RCMs on model uncertainty was limited (<1%). Stem biomass increment results obtained from the two FMTYPES were different in absolute terms, but the models agreed well in their relative response to RCM, to MANFOR and to TIMEWIND. The total variance of the predictions was 10 times higher for the process-based model (ANAFORE) than for the empirical model (SIBYLA). These observations are the reason for the large contribution of FMTYPE to the total variance of the simulated stem biomass increment results. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/65126
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Centre of Excellence PLECO, Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, Wilrijk, Belgium; Department of Silviculture and Forest Production, National Forest Centre - Forest Research Institute Zvolen, T.G. Masaryka 22, Zvolen, Slovakia; Department of Forest Management, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Kamýcká 129, Praha - Suchdol, Czech Republic; Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány P. sétány 1/A, Budapest, Hungary; Institute of Forest Ecology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Ľ. Štúra 2, Zvolen, Slovakia; Department of Forest Management and Geodesy, Faculty of Forestry, Technical University in Zvolen, T.G. Masaryka 24, Zvolen, Slovakia
Recommended Citation:
Horemans J.A.,Bosela M.,Dobor L.,et al. Variance decomposition of predictions of stem biomass increment for European beech: Contribution of selected sources of uncertainty[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2016-01-01,361