DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2015.09.027
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942673114
论文题名: A simple way to incorporate uncertainty and risk into forest harvest scheduling
作者: Robinson A.P. ; McLarin M. ; Moss I.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN: 0378-1127
出版年: 2016
卷: 359 起始页码: 11
结束页码: 18
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Robust harvest scheduling
; Uncertainty
; Yield modeling
Scopus关键词: Forestry
; Harvesting
; Scheduling
; Harvest scheduling
; Management decisions
; Measure of uncertainty
; Objective functions
; Sequence of actions
; Uncertainty
; Uncertainty and risks
; Yield modeling
; Uncertainty analysis
; design method
; forest ecosystem
; forest management
; harvesting
; optimization
; probability
; risk assessment
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Forest planning often involves choosing a sequence of actions that will maximize an objective such as predicted net present value. However, seemingly optimal sequences of actions rarely achieve the expected outcome, because of uncertainty arising from errors in prediction from various sources (e.g., measurement, sampling, model, parameter, and forecasting). One substantial source of uncertainty can be measured by systematically comparing historical yields with historical projections for a large number of harvest operations. These comparisons can be represented as a distribution of potential future yields, which can then be used several ways. First, it can be used to compute the probability of achieving at least a minimum expected yield, which allows for risk-based forest management decisions. Second, the measure of uncertainty can be used as a penalty in the objective function during optimization, enabling the design of harvesting schedules that are robust to uncertainty. Third, the measure of uncertainty can itself be minimized in the objective function. We propose that identifying and using the most important components of uncertainty in this way can lead to benefits for forest management. We provide a recipe for obtaining and using the needed information, and a case study example. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/65207
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: CEBRA and the School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; Forestry Tasmania, 79 Melville Street, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Robinson A.P.,McLarin M.,Moss I.. A simple way to incorporate uncertainty and risk into forest harvest scheduling[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2016-01-01,359