DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2015.03.014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84941033571
论文题名: Projecting global forest area towards 2030
作者: d'Annunzio R. ; Sandker M. ; Finegold Y. ; Min Z.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN: 0378-1127
出版年: 2015
卷: 352 起始页码: 124
结束页码: 133
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Agricultural expansion
; Forest area projection
; Natural forests
; Planted forests
; Spatial modelling
; Wood consumption
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Conservation
; Deforestation
; Land use
; Surveys
; Agricultural expansion
; Forest area
; Natural forests
; Planted forests
; Spatial modelling
; Wood consumption
; Forestry
; agricultural ecosystem
; forest resource
; fuelwood
; global perspective
; Gross Domestic Product
; land use change
; plantation forestry
; protected area
; risk assessment
; spatial analysis
; wood
; Agriculture
; Forests
; Models
; Wood
英文摘要: There is strong interest in gaining an informed view of changes likely to occur in forest area and the impacts of these changes on production forestry and forest conservation. Despite the complexity of underlying causes, it is largely accepted that deforestation is mainly focused in the tropics and driven by conversion to agriculture. Similarly, energy demand and GDP are largely determining wood consumption and production. Based on these assumptions, we built a model predicting natural forests and planted forests' evolution in the next 15. years, and compared the results of the modelling with survey results from country expertise. The results suggest that on a global level, forest resources loss is likely to slow down. The forests that are most at risk of conversion were clearly identified within the tropical domain, while the forest under protected areas showed very little risk of being converted to other land uses in the near future. © 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/65382
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, Rome, Italy; Clark University, Graduate School of Geography, 950 Main Street, Worcester, MA, United States; Forest Inventory Division, State Forestry Administration (SFA), Hepingli Dong Street 18, Dong Cheng District, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
d'Annunzio R.,Sandker M.,Finegold Y.,et al. Projecting global forest area towards 2030[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2015-01-01,352