globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2015.02.033
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84925212466
论文题名:
Cohesive fire management within an uncertain environment: A review of risk handling and decision support systems
作者: Pacheco A.P.; Claro J.; Fernandes P.M.; de Neufville R.; Oliveira T.M.; Borges J.G.; Rodrigues J.C.
刊名: Forest Ecology and Management
ISSN:  0378-1127
出版年: 2015
卷: 347
起始页码: 1
结束页码: 17
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Decision support systems ; Economic efficiency ; Forest fire management ; Implementation management ; Natural resources ; Risk
Scopus关键词: Artificial intelligence ; Decision support systems ; Deforestation ; Environmental management ; Fires ; Forestry ; Ignition systems ; Losses ; Natural resources ; Natural resources management ; Real time systems ; Risk assessment ; Risk management ; Risks ; Economic efficiency ; Forest fire management ; Implementation managements ; Real-time assessment ; Risk-based decisions ; Technological progress ; Uncertain environments ; Wildfire management ; Decision making ; decision making ; decision support system ; economic analysis ; fire management ; forest management ; forest resource ; implementation process ; risk assessment ; wildfire ; Economic Analysis ; Efficiency ; Forest Fires ; Management ; Natural Resources ; Risk Assessment
英文摘要: Wildfire management has been struggling in recent years with escalating devastation, expenditures, and complexity. Given the copious factors involved and the complexity of their interactions, uncertainty in the outcomes is a prominent feature of wildfire management strategies, at both policy and operational levels. Improvements in risk handling and in risk-based decision support tools have therefore a key role in addressing these challenges. In this paper, we review key systems created to support wildfire management decision-making at different levels and scales, and describe their evolution from an initial focus on landscape-level fire growth simulation and burn probability assessment, to the incorporation of exposure and economic loss potential (allowing the translation of ignition likelihood, fire environment - terrain, fuels, and weather - and suppression efficacy into potential fire effects), the integration with forest management and planning, and more recently, to developments in the assessment of values at risk, including real-time assessment. This evolution is linked to a progressive widening of the scope of usage of these systems, from an initial more limited application to risk assessment, to the subsequent inclusion of functionality enabling their utilization in the context of risk management, and more recently, to their explicit casting in the broader societal context of risks and decisions, from a risk governance perspective. This joint evolution can be seen as the result of a simultaneous pull from methodological progresses in risk handling, and push from technological progress in wildfire management decision support tools, as well as more broadly in computational power. We identify the key benefits and challenges in the development and adoption of these systems, as well as future plausible research trends. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/65541
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作者单位: INESC TEC and Faculdade de Engenharia, Universidade do Porto, Campus da FEUP, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 378, Porto, Portugal; Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences(CITAB), University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro(UTAD), Quinta de Prados, Vila Real, Portugal; Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, United States; Forest Protection, Grupo PortucelSoporcel, Edifício Mitrena, Apartado 55, Setúbal, Portugal; Forest Research Centre, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, Lisboa, Portugal

Recommended Citation:
Pacheco A.P.,Claro J.,Fernandes P.M.,et al. Cohesive fire management within an uncertain environment: A review of risk handling and decision support systems[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2015-01-01,347
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